TTF Extends Decline With Warmer Weather and Healthy Supply

The forecast of a return to above normal temperatures in NW Europe by the end of this week is driving European gas prices to fresh lows. Front month TTF is trading down to the lowest since August 2021 with gas storage levels expected to finish the winter heating season well above normal.

• TTF APR 23 down -4.4% at 43€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -3.6% at 44€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -3.4% at 51.21€/MWh
• Strong LNG imports have helped cover for the higher demand during the recent cooler spell with total EU sendout last week up just below the December record levels at 514mcm/d on 1 Mar. A shift towards warmer weather will ease the pressure on LNG supplies from this weekend.
• European gas in storage is at 59.24% according to GIE data from 4 Mar compared to the five year average of 38.1%. A continuation of normal withdrawals would bring storage to around 55% at the end of the withdrawal season at the end of this month.
• Strong Norwegian supplies and Russian flows just below start of year levels at 41.5mcm/d are also adding to the healthy supplies and putting downward pressure on prices. Nominations today show flows from Norway at 334.2mcm/d but supplies are expected to drop in the coming few days due to maintenance at several fields.