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TTF Extends Gains on LNG Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF extends gains with concern for tighter LNG supplies and potentially higher demand from Asia. Spreads are favouring spot deliveries to Asia over Europe with low prices boosting demand from some small buyers in Asia.

  • The US netback to Europe for July is 4.87$/mmbtu and to Europe is 5.91$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg earlier this morning.
  • The Saudi Arabia oil production cut and higher crude prices may also help support LNG prices with buyers potentially deferring oil indexed term deliveries and turning to spot cargoes.
  • Warmer than normal weather across Europe could also boost cooling demand while Norwegian supplies remain curtailed by maintenance.
  • Some analysts suggest more coal to gas switching should support demand at around the mid €20s/MWh.
    • TTF JUL 23 up 11.3% at 26.36€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 2.7% at 41.98€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2.7% at 42.8€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 3.3% at 47.27€/MWh

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