TTF Falls as Low Demand Offsets Norway Outages

TTF front month edges lower after a pull back late yesterday amid the expiry of the Nov contract. Extended Norwegian outages yesterday are supportive but low demand from the lack of cold weather in the forecast and high storage levels are limiting upside moves.

• TTF NOV 23 down -2.8% at 41.9€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 255.8mcm/d as field and plant maintenance gradually comes to an end. New works however continue to extend the seasonal capacity reductions with outages expected to remain over 50mcm/d in the coming week.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.15% full on 27 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 86.96%.

• LNG sendout to Europe is up to 302mcm/d on 27 Sep from as low as 236mcm/d on 23 Sep but still well below levels around 370mcm/d seen this time last year.
• The latest weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the next two weeks with little sign of any cold until mid October.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still strong at 76.7mcm/d today.