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TTF Higher on Russian Supply Risk Amid Muted Asian LNG Demand

NATURAL GAS

TTF extends gains on the day but still below the high of 30.76€/MWh from Friday with risks to Russian supplies and warm weather in southern Europe offsetting high storage levels and low industrial demand.

  • No impact has been seen on Russian pipeline gas flows via Sudzha in Ukraine with today at 40.2mcm/d and tomorrow nominated at 42.2mcm/d.
  • Competition for LNG supplies from Asia remains an upside risk especially into next winter Front month JKM-TTF has fallen over the last week from a high of 3.76$/mmbtu on 17 July back to 1.1$/mmbtu today.
  • Demand from Asia buyers currently remains muted with little interest in additional spot purchases from Japan or China. Buyers in India including IOC and GSPC however remain active.
  • Taiwan’s largest LNG import terminal is in the projected path of Typhoon Doksuri according to forecasts.
    • TTF AUG 23 up 6.9% at 30.1€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 2.5% at 49.65€/MWh
    • JKM Aug 23 down -0.3% at 10.89$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Aug 23 down -0.7$/mmbtu at 1.16$/mmbtu

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