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TTF Near Term Extends Gains Amid Supply and Demand Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is surging higher again to set fresh highs towards the end of the day with support from near term supply risks combining with easing temperatures into October. Front month futures are trading up to the highest since early April.

  • Supply risks from Norway maintenance extensions, US export terminal maintenance and some lingering concerns from Australia LNG supply are all supporting the move.
  • Moves in future season are more muted with the largest move at the front of the curve. Longer term forecast for mild weather and near full storage inventories are helping to ease the concern for tight winter gas supplies and damped the moves beyond the front month as the Oct-Dec spread narrows.
    • TTF OCT 23 up 12.4% at 44.71€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 6% at 50.25€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 3.6% at 50.54€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 3% at 54.04€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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