TTF Rallies With Cooler Weather From 16 Jan

European natural gas is gaining ground today with TTF opening as much as 8% higher due to a cooler weather forecast for Europe boosting the prospect of higher heating demand.

• TTF FEB 23 up 5.2% at 68.75€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 4.6% at 72€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 3.9% at 78€/MWh
• NW and Central Europe is now expected to see at or even below normal temperatures from about 16 Jan.
• Low demand and high storage levels have eased the supply risks in Europe for this winter. Pressure on summer prices has also reduced with gas in store likely to end the winter much higher than originally expected. European gas storage is slowly declining down to 82.59% on 10 Jan although the withdrawal rates remain below the seasonal normal rate.
• LNG import flows to Europe were around 390mcm/d on 9 Jan despite spreads still encouraging spot diversions from Europe to Asia. Risks to LNG supplies to Europe come from a recovery in Chinese demand and with the arrival of any cold weather into Japan. Around 68% of the LNG exported by the US last week is headed to Europe, while 27% is en route to Asia, according to Kpler.
• Norwegian supply is today nominated at 337.5mcm/d but some planned field outages expected later this month could limit imports. Gas flows through Ukraine are again at 35.5mcm/d.