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TTF Reverses Decline as Middle East Tensions Add Supply Concern

NATURAL GAS

TTF reverses earlier decline back over 50€/MWh with supply uncertainty still supporting prices despite low early winter season demand and the halt to planned strike action at Australia LNG facilities.

  • Support comes from rising concern for an escalation in the conflict in Israel after the Jordan leg of US President Biden’s trip was cancelled due to an explosion at a Gaza hospital.
  • The risk of competition for LNG supplies from China is also supportive after better than expected GDP data although Asia’s LNG imports in the January-September period this year remained below levels seen in 2021 according to Bloomberg.
  • The Q1 2024 -Nov 2023 spread is holding steady today at 5.9€/MWh and with Q1 2025- Q1 2024 just slightly lower at 1.2€/MWh.
    • TTF NOV 23 up 4.1% at 50.9€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 4.1% at 56.81€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 3.8% at 54.68€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 3.1% at 57.55€/MWh
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