TTF Sensitive to LNG Disruption but Reverses From Previous Gains

Front month TTF falls back to levels seen at the start of last week to reverse much of the gain seen yesterday. The recent surges higher in the last week demonstrate the market sensitivity to potential LNG supply disruption with strong imports still required to refill storage this summer and to cover demand next winter.

• Front month had surged higher on concern for tighter LNG supplies amid competition from Asia and with support for LNG prices following the Saudi crude oil production cuts. Higher crude prices may give some support to LNG prices with buyers potentially deferring oil indexed term deliveries and turning to spot cargoes although the actual impact on overall supplies is likely to be limited.
• LNG demand from key buyers in Asia is still muted by high inventories while crude oil prices have pulled back with focus on global economic concerns.
• LNG imports into Europe declined over the weekend with the outages at Hammerfest LNG until 7 June disrupting supplies from Norway and with outages at Montoir LNG until 18 June and Zeebrugge LNG on 7-9 June.
  • TTF JUL 23 down -9.8% at 25.69€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 down -4.5% at 41.15€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 down -4.7% at 41.49€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down -4.4% at 45.45€/MWh