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TTF Spreads Steady After Widening in Late March

NATGAS

The TTF May 24 – Q3 24 spread has fallen from nearly -0.2€/MWh in mid March a low of -0.75€/MWh as high end of winter season gas storage levels and muted demand in Europe due to warm weather weigh on the front of the curve.

  • May24 TTF has seen some support in the later half of this week amid a dip in Norway supply and some LNG interest from Asia but is still set for about a 1€/MWh decline on the week.
  • The Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread narrowed slightly yesterday after also seeing a steady decline from around -4.1€/MWh on Mar. 19 to a low of -5.3€/MWh on Apr. 3.
  • Recent strength in Brent is giving spot TTF the edge over lower sloped oil-indexed contracts according to ICIS.
  • TTF has fallen considerably at the front over the last six months but has hardly moved in the back half of the decade awaiting the next wave of LNG supply.
    • TTF MAY 24 up 0.6% at 26.36€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 0.7% at 27.1€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.5% at 31.28€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.3% at 29.93€/MWh


Source: ICIS

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