TTF Ticks Higher With Support From LNG Outages

Front month TTF is edging higher so far today with support from Norway pipeline and LNG supply disruption and concern for future competition from Asia offset by healthy storage levels and low demand.

• TTF JUL 23 up 1.1% at 25.14€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -0.3% at 40.45€/MWh
• Total European LNG sendout recovered back up to over 390mcm/d on 5 June after falling to around 350mcm/d over the weekend with outages at Montoir LNG until 18 June and Zeebrugge LNG on 7-9 June.
• The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures across central and NW Europe throughout most of the two week period although below normal temperatures will dominate the south. German solar output is expected to remain high, but wind output remains low.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are still down at 224.4mcm/d today due to ongoing maintenance at numerous fields and processing plants which is expected to continue into mid June. The unplanned outage at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG facility due to a gas leak has been extended by a week to 14 June.
• European gas injections remain below normal but total storage is now up to 70.37% full on 5 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 53.1%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 40.6mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are steady at 65.4mcm/d.