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UBS Adds July Hike To Expected Path, With A June "Skip"

FED

UBS now sees a final 25bp Fed funds hike in July to a terminal 5.25-5.50% rate, with a "skip" at the June meeting "consistent with how we view the recent FOMC communications."

  • Previously UBS had seen May's 25bp hike as the last. Key to this view change are their expectation that "the May core CPI data [out Jun 13] looks strong" in addition to last Friday's "robust" payrolls data, while UBS also sees the median rate "dot" in the upcoming projections to be revised up to 5.4% from 5.1% previously.
  • They still see rate cuts starting this year but have pushed the first one back to December (vs September prior), with a US recession beginning later this year. With inflation falling below 2% by end-2024, they see the Funds rate dropping to 1.00-1.25% at the September 2024 FOMC.
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