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AUSSIE: UBS note that their "bullish AUD views have been challenged for a while,
but the factors which have thwarted any AUD appreciation in recent months appear
to be dissipating. 1) US rates are unlikely to go much higher & indeed we exp. a
Fed pause in Dec; this should take the steam out of the USD rally. In the same
vein, we judge the RBA to be telegraphing that it sees the first hike in H2
2020. This, however, is priced already, which means that there is little scope
for AU rates to go lower. Lastly, Aussie was hit hard by trade tensions (-4.1%),
EM tensions & China growth worries. These factors are starting to abate & we
expect Chinese stimulus to show up more meaningfully in Q4. A materially weaker
CNY or a sharp fall in the S&P is the main risk to our views. We expect the
AUD/USD to appreciate to $0.82 by end-19. We are watching the news flow on
Chinese infrastructure approvals, Australian exports of iron ore to China
(weekly) & depreciation pressures on the CNY. Australian consumption and
housing-related data are also key to assess if these sectors may become more
material drags on Australian activity."