UBS note that their "bullish AUD views.......>

AUSSIE: UBS note that their "bullish AUD views have been challenged for a while,

but the factors which have thwarted any AUD appreciation in recent months appear

to be dissipating. 1) US rates are unlikely to go much higher & indeed we exp. a

Fed pause in Dec; this should take the steam out of the USD rally. In the same

vein, we judge the RBA to be telegraphing that it sees the first hike in H2

2020. This, however, is priced already, which means that there is little scope

for AU rates to go lower. Lastly, Aussie was hit hard by trade tensions (-4.1%),

EM tensions & China growth worries. These factors are starting to abate & we

expect Chinese stimulus to show up more meaningfully in Q4. A materially weaker

CNY or a sharp fall in the S&P is the main risk to our views. We expect the

AUD/USD to appreciate to $0.82 by end-19. We are watching the news flow on

Chinese infrastructure approvals, Australian exports of iron ore to China

(weekly) & depreciation pressures on the CNY. Australian consumption and

housing-related data are also key to assess if these sectors may become more

material drags on Australian activity."