UBS Preview: Probably Nothing, But...

UBS FOMC Preview: Fed does not seem to have an urgency to change policy
stance. A single shift to a coherent set of new policies most likely in Sep, but
an incremental approach is possible.

-If we are wrong and they act in July, could commit to holding rates at
zero until inflation expected to overshoot target / committing to continue asset
purchases until "material progress" made toward full empl.
- Fwd guidance would mean: rates at zero until the one-year forward
forecast for inflation overshoots the 2% target, for instance to 2¼%. Or,
could pledge to hold the funds rate at zero until inflation returns to 2%
target. The former is more likely, as it keeps more optionality.

- On balance sheet, to shift to buying smaller amnt of Tsys but longer-dated,
tied to an outcome-based threshold.

- Date-based forward guidance and front-end yield curve control, on the
other hand, would require more consensus on the Committee for a slow
recovery.