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UK activity data due at 7:00GMT (1/2)

UK DATA
  • UK monthly GDP / IP / services / construction / trade balance data for September is due for release at 7:00GMT, alongside the first print of Q3 GDP.
  • This data follows the November BOE MPC meeting where markets were surprised the BOE decided not to raise rates. However, the BOE placed extra emphasis on the data in months ahead, and so this data will be closely watched.
  • The Bloomberg consensus expects monthly GDP to remain stable at 0.4%M/M, with the survey skewed towards upside risks.
  • Services are forecasted to grow 0.5%M/M for September, increasing slightly from the 0.3%M/M growth rate in August with the survey data pointing towards more downside risks. This interestingly contrasts to more upside risks in overall M/M GDP estimates.
  • Both industrial and manufacturing production are set to slow with September IP expected at 0.2%M/M down from 0.8%M/M and manufacturing decreasing to 0.2%M/M down from 0.5%M/M, both dampened due to prevailing supply constraints.
  • The composite purchasing managers index rose slightly in September, to 54.9 from 54.8, with the services index rising slightly and the manufacturing component falling. The construction PMI declined to 52.6 from 55.2 in August, after official data showed the sector contracting in both July and August.
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