MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, October 17

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Awaiting EU Response On Next Stage Talks

MNI INTERVIEW: Muted Impact On EU Inflation From MidEast Oil

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Eyes Real Estate Relending Tools Enhancement

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY17.4 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1220 Thurs; +2.76% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE SEP FINAL HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

Australia Sep Unemployment Rate 4.1%

MNI:AUSTRALIA SEP UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +4.1%

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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UK DATA: MNI Inflation and Labour Market Insight: October 2024 Release

UK DATA
Data BulletCEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • We think that markets have overstated the significance of this week’s data. Given that a large part of the surprise was driven by air fares, inflation data is not as big a surprise as at first glance and underlying services only improved marginally this month.
  • On the labour market data, regular private sector wages continue to move in the right direction and have already reached the BOE’s Q3 forecast a month early. The quantity side is still holding up better than survey data suggest - but the validity of the LFS data remains questionable at best.
  • Overall, we don't think this data opens up a 50bp cut any time soon. We also don't think given the underlying drivers that it really opens up a more "activist" MPC (to use Bailey's words). We would only really view the data as moving in the right direction and making slow and steady progress on an underlying basis. However, sequential cuts are becoming more likely but, but we think that markets will probably continue to overreact in the short-term.

For the full document click here.

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  • We think that markets have overstated the significance of this week’s data. Given that a large part of the surprise was driven by air fares, inflation data is not as big a surprise as at first glance and underlying services only improved marginally this month.
  • On the labour market data, regular private sector wages continue to move in the right direction and have already reached the BOE’s Q3 forecast a month early. The quantity side is still holding up better than survey data suggest - but the validity of the LFS data remains questionable at best.
  • Overall, we don't think this data opens up a 50bp cut any time soon. We also don't think given the underlying drivers that it really opens up a more "activist" MPC (to use Bailey's words). We would only really view the data as moving in the right direction and making slow and steady progress on an underlying basis. However, sequential cuts are becoming more likely but, but we think that markets will probably continue to overreact in the short-term.

For the full document click here.