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UK House Prices Beat Expectations

CREDIT MACRO

Nationwide house price index came in ahead of expectations, a minor credit positive for the banks and housebuilders.

  • Prices +0.7% m/m (est: +0.1%) and above top of range (-0.3 to +0.4). Nationwide comments allude to lower mortgage rates, a shift in view about the future path being lower but also notes the partial reversal of that latter view in recent weeks.
  • Price-earnings ratios are now back closer to pre-COVID level on its figures but the lender’s outlook is that a rapid rebound in prices this year is “unlikely”.
  • This tallies with, for example, Persimmon’s update on 10-Jan and is, at the very least, an absence of bad news. Yesterday saw a datum on record high UK corporate insolvencies which does highlight that dichotomy between personal and corporate sectors in the UK. Perhaps banks, political footballs at times, are taking a more pragmatic approach to personal customers.
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