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(X2) Bear Cycle Still In Play

BUNDS

Heavy supply this morning

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UK Sellside GDP Views (Low to High): 3/3

UK DATA

Daiwa

  • “We currently forecast a sizeable decline in growth in GDP in June of a little more than 1%M/M, to leave total economic output down 0.1%Q/Q in Q2 following an increase of 0.8%Q/Q in Q1, with household consumption and business investment likely to have contracted. Not least given sizable revisions to the monthly data over recent months, the additional bank holiday in June and transport sector strikes at the end of the month, there is greater uncertainty surrounding the growth forecast last quarter. Within the detail in June, we expect supply bottlenecks and subdued demand to have weighed on manufacturing production, with services activity also expected to contract despite the warmer weather.”

NatWest Markets

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Daiwa

  • “We currently forecast a sizeable decline in growth in GDP in June of a little more than 1%M/M, to leave total economic output down 0.1%Q/Q in Q2 following an increase of 0.8%Q/Q in Q1, with household consumption and business investment likely to have contracted. Not least given sizable revisions to the monthly data over recent months, the additional bank holiday in June and transport sector strikes at the end of the month, there is greater uncertainty surrounding the growth forecast last quarter. Within the detail in June, we expect supply bottlenecks and subdued demand to have weighed on manufacturing production, with services activity also expected to contract despite the warmer weather.”

NatWest Markets

Keep reading...Show less