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UK terminal rate now at 3.50% according to the SONIA strip

SONIA

SONIA futures are the biggest movers of the day after the Bank of England left the door open to potentially larger hikes in upcoming meetings (see the four ways the language was strengthened here). The Dec-22 contract is 26.0 ticks lower on the day with all Whites and Reds down at least 17.0 ticks on the day (outside of the Jun-22 contract). Markets are now pricing 60bp for August (around a 40% probability of a 75bp hike with 50bp fully priced), 112bp by September and 189bp by year-end - this is up around 21bp from yesterday's pricing. See chart below. The terminal rate has increase by around 25bp, too, to around 3.50%.

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