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POLAND: Underwhelming Foreign Demand Weighed On Industrial Output

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

This summarises snap comments from local sell-side desks to today's round of November economic activity data, with several analysts pointing to the adverse impact of meagre foreign demand on Polish industrial output.

  • ING write that wage growth remains in double digits (+10.5% Y/Y) despite a high comparative base and a lower number of working days, with the outturn boosted by bonus payments in the mining sector. The labour market looks healthy, in their view, with the unemployment rate still at record lows. Industrial output was subpar amid weak external demand.
  • mBank note that wage growth has recently stabilised around +10% Y/Y but should slow further next year. Industrial output surprised to the downside after an "odd" rebound in October and hopes for improvement are related to the domestic sector amid weak foreign demand.
  • Pekao flags seasonal effects in industrial output (4 working days less) as well as a correction after an "anomaly" in October, while also noting that the full Q4 looks optimistic.
  • The Polish Economic Institute point to a worse-than-expected industrial output print, with activity in the sector facing risks from weak EU demand, which is hurting exporters (the value of new foreign orders fell by 4% Y/Y in October). This translates into PPI deflation, which has brought industrial prices back to levels from March 2022. Wages slowed compared with the levels from the past two years and wage increases in manufacturing and services are now comparable.
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This summarises snap comments from local sell-side desks to today's round of November economic activity data, with several analysts pointing to the adverse impact of meagre foreign demand on Polish industrial output.

  • ING write that wage growth remains in double digits (+10.5% Y/Y) despite a high comparative base and a lower number of working days, with the outturn boosted by bonus payments in the mining sector. The labour market looks healthy, in their view, with the unemployment rate still at record lows. Industrial output was subpar amid weak external demand.
  • mBank note that wage growth has recently stabilised around +10% Y/Y but should slow further next year. Industrial output surprised to the downside after an "odd" rebound in October and hopes for improvement are related to the domestic sector amid weak foreign demand.
  • Pekao flags seasonal effects in industrial output (4 working days less) as well as a correction after an "anomaly" in October, while also noting that the full Q4 looks optimistic.
  • The Polish Economic Institute point to a worse-than-expected industrial output print, with activity in the sector facing risks from weak EU demand, which is hurting exporters (the value of new foreign orders fell by 4% Y/Y in October). This translates into PPI deflation, which has brought industrial prices back to levels from March 2022. Wages slowed compared with the levels from the past two years and wage increases in manufacturing and services are now comparable.