March 22, 2023 02:50 GMT
Unwinds Some Recent Outperformance Amid Portfolio Outflows, Election Expected For 14th May
USD/THB is around 0.60% higher in the first part of trade today. This puts the pair back into the 34.50/55 region. Recent support in the pair, evident around the 34.00 level, has held. We are back above the 20 (34.48) and 50-day (34.38) EMAs, while the 100 day sits higher at the 34.66 level.
- Baht is still the best performer within EM Asia FX month to date, up 2.4% (PHP is the next best performer +1.60%). So, today's correction unwinds some of the recent outperformance trend, but only at the margins.
- The local election is likely to be held on May 14 after the parliament was recently dissolved. The opposition party (Pheu Thai party) is ahead in the polls, which is linked to exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, but incumbent PM Prayuth Chan-Ocha is likely to have the support of the Senate in any bid to stay in power.
- A prominent sell-side name noted solid USD/THB buying throughout the NY session on Tuesday. This could reflect some nerves around the election, although outflows from Thai bonds were chunky at the start of the week. Equity outflows also continue, -$136.4mn week to date.
- The local data calendar is quiet, but we do have the Finance Minister speaking on the economy at 12:30pm.