-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessUpside Risks to Jan HICP Final Print
The key focus for the European morning session will be the final print of Eurozone January HICP (1000 GMT / 1100 CET).
- Consensus looks for a one tenth increase from +8.5% y/y to +8.6% y/y. This would nonetheless imply a 0.6-0.7pp deceleration from December. We look for upside risks due to our calculations of the estimate that Eurostat used for Germany in the flash print.
- Based on MNI calculations, the flash HICP German number all else equal would be consistent with around a 0.2ppt revision higher to the final Eurozone HICP print on 23 February (0.1-0.4ppt range).
- For the monthly data, consensus is looking for a 0.2pp upwards revision to -0.2% m/m.
- Core inflation is seen confirmed at +5.2% y/y. We will be eyeing any revisions made here. According to the flash release, underlying HICP fell -0.8% m/m, reflecting the -1.8% m/m fall in non-energy industrial goods prices and -0.2% m/m decline in services prices.
- Markets currently price in 49bp for March (the ECB has explicitly signalled 50bp) with 84bp cumulatively by May, 105bp by June and a peak of 122bp by September October. The main risk from a higher print in our view would a steeper curve through the May-September period.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.