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     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by further 0.3% in
April after a strong 0.6% gain in March. Seasonally adjusted industry motor
vehicle sales slipped in April, but AAA reported that gasoline prices rose
sharply in mid-April from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise
0.5% excluding motor vehicles after 0.2% gains in the previous two months. The
impact of the Federal income tax cuts and stronger consumer confidence may
finally appear in the data.
     Analysts sharply underestimated retail sales growth in March after
overestimates in the previous two months. Misses for past April data have been
mixed, but there have been overestimates in three of the last four years.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18
Retail Sales forecast:
Median                               0.3     0.4     0.2     0.4     0.3     0.3
Range High                           0.5     0.7     0.3     0.5     0.4     0.5
Range Low                            0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.3     0.2
Actual result                        0.8     0.4    -0.3    -0.1     0.6    #N/A
Median-Actual                       -0.5     0.0     0.5     0.5    -0.3    #N/A
Historical comparison:            Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17
Median                               0.1    -0.3     0.4     0.1     0.9     0.6
Range High                           0.8     0.3     0.5     0.4     1.5     0.8
Range Low                           -0.2    -0.7     0.0    -0.5     0.3     0.4
Actual result                        0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.0     1.3     0.4
Median-Actual                        0.0    -0.2     0.3     0.1    -0.4     0.2
                                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18
Retail ex-autos Forecast:
Median                               0.7     0.3     0.5     0.5     0.1     0.5
Range High                           0.9     0.6     0.8     0.7     0.4     0.7
Range Low                            0.3     0.1     0.0     0.3     0.0     0.4
Actual result:                       1.0     0.4     0.0     0.2     0.2    #N/A
Median-Actual                       -0.3    -0.1     0.5     0.3    -0.1    #N/A
Historical comparison:            Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17
Median                               0.2    -0.3     0.6     0.4     0.6     0.5
Range High                           0.8     0.5     0.8     0.7     0.9     0.9
Range Low                           -0.3    -0.5     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.3
Actual result                        0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.8     0.3
Median-Actual                        0.1    -0.4     0.6     0.3    -0.2     0.2
                                          Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18
NA-Made Car Sales, mln units,
saar                                         3.3     3.2     3.3     3.2     3.0
NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units,
saar                                         6.8     6.6     6.7     7.0     6.9
*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include
GM
AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)                2.456   2.491   2.570   2.523   2.658
mo/mo pct change                            #N/A     1.4     3.2    -1.8     5.4
Consumer confidence                        123.1   124.3   130.0   127.0   128.7
Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6
mo:*
Automobile                                  13.0    13.6    12.9    11.5    13.2
Home                                         7.4     6.0     6.4     6.0     7.8
Major appliance                             59.3    50.1    52.1    49.5    54.3
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]