US Data Forecast Focus: April Retail Sales Seen +0.3%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by further 0.3% in

April after a strong 0.6% gain in March. Seasonally adjusted industry motor

vehicle sales slipped in April, but AAA reported that gasoline prices rose

sharply in mid-April from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise

0.5% excluding motor vehicles after 0.2% gains in the previous two months. The

impact of the Federal income tax cuts and stronger consumer confidence may

finally appear in the data.

     Analysts sharply underestimated retail sales growth in March after

overestimates in the previous two months. Misses for past April data have been

mixed, but there have been overestimates in three of the last four years.

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                                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

Retail Sales forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.4     0.2     0.4     0.3     0.3

Range High                           0.5     0.7     0.3     0.5     0.4     0.5

Range Low                            0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.3     0.2

Actual result                        0.8     0.4    -0.3    -0.1     0.6    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.5     0.0     0.5     0.5    -0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                               0.1    -0.3     0.4     0.1     0.9     0.6

Range High                           0.8     0.3     0.5     0.4     1.5     0.8

Range Low                           -0.2    -0.7     0.0    -0.5     0.3     0.4

Actual result                        0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.0     1.3     0.4

Median-Actual                        0.0    -0.2     0.3     0.1    -0.4     0.2

                                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

Median                               0.7     0.3     0.5     0.5     0.1     0.5

Range High                           0.9     0.6     0.8     0.7     0.4     0.7

Range Low                            0.3     0.1     0.0     0.3     0.0     0.4

Actual result:                       1.0     0.4     0.0     0.2     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.3    -0.1     0.5     0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                               0.2    -0.3     0.6     0.4     0.6     0.5

Range High                           0.8     0.5     0.8     0.7     0.9     0.9

Range Low                           -0.3    -0.5     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.3

Actual result                        0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.8     0.3

Median-Actual                        0.1    -0.4     0.6     0.3    -0.2     0.2

                                          Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units,

saar                                         3.3     3.2     3.3     3.2     3.0

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units,

saar                                         6.8     6.6     6.7     7.0     6.9

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include

GM

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)                2.456   2.491   2.570   2.523   2.658

mo/mo pct change                            #N/A     1.4     3.2    -1.8     5.4

Consumer confidence                        123.1   124.3   130.0   127.0   128.7

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6

mo:*

Automobile                                  13.0    13.6    12.9    11.5    13.2

Home                                         7.4     6.0     6.4     6.0     7.8

Major appliance                             59.3    50.1    52.1    49.5    54.3

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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