US Data Forecast Focus: July CPI Seen +0.2%, Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July 

following a flat reading in June. Analysts expect energy prices to 

rebound modestly after another sharp decline in June, as temperatures 

across the country picked up to lift electricity usage. Food prices are 

expected to remain tame after a flat June reading. The core CPI is also 

forecast to rise 0.2% following a third straight 0.1% increase in June, 

but vehicle and apparel prices were again cited as drags on the core 

number that prevent it from breaking out of its recent trend. 

     Analysts correctly estimated CPI in June, though core prices were 

a little stronger than expected. Misses in July have been 

mixed in direction, but generally small in size, as is normal for CPI. 

                         Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.1     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.1     0.3     0.0     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.0    -0.1     0.2    -0.5     0.0     0.1

Actual result               0.1    -0.3     0.2    -0.1     0.0    #N/A

 vs median forecast         0.0     0.3     0.0     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                     0.4     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.0

 Range High                 0.5     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.1

 Range Low                 -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0

Actual result               0.5     0.0     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0

 vs median forecast        -0.1     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0

                         Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.2    -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast         0.0     0.3     0.1     0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1

 vs median forecast         0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1

Change in:

                                     Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

USDA Farm Prices Recd (pct chg)         3.4     2.0     2.1    -0.1    #N/A

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.294   2.392   2.340   2.329   2.260

  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A    4.3    -2.2    -0.5    -3.0

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              70.5    68.5    60.5    55.0    62.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           53.5    57.6    49.2    52.1    55.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]