US Data Forecast Focus: November Industrial Prod Seen Up 0.6%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:35 GMT May 16/07:35 EST May 16

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.6% in April

following solid gains in the previous two months. Factory payrolls rose by

24,000 in April and the factory workweek rose to 41.1 hours. However, the ISM

production index fell to 57.2 in the current month from 61.0 in the previous

month. Utilities production is expected to continue its upward trend in the

month after a rebound in the previous month, as weather was a bit cooler than

normal, supporting heat use at a time when most of the country has normally shut

it off. Mining production is forecast to rise further after gains in February

and March. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.4% from 78.0% in

March.

     Analysts sharply underestimated industrial production in both February and

March, with the latter month driven higher by across the board gains. Recent

April misses have been tilted toward underestimates as well, so another upside

surprise in possible in April as well.

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Industrial Production:            Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

Forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.5     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.6

High                                 0.8     0.9     0.3     0.8     0.9     1.0

Low                                  0.0     0.1    -0.3     0.0     0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.2     0.9    -0.1     1.1     0.5    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.1    -0.4     0.3    -0.7    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:            Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                               0.6    -0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.5     0.6

High                                 1.0     0.3     0.5     0.3     0.7     1.0

Low                                  0.0    -0.7    -0.5    -0.7    -0.2     0.2

Actual result                        1.1    -0.5    -0.6    -0.3     0.7     1.0

Median-Actual                       -0.5     0.3     0.6     0.2    -0.2    -0.4

Capacity Utilization:             Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

Forecast:

Median                              77.2    77.3    78.0    77.8    77.9    78.4

High                                77.5    77.3    78.4    78.1    78.2    78.7

Low                                 77.1    77.2    77.0    77.4    77.7    78.2

Actual result                       77.1    77.9    77.5    78.1    78.0    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.1    -0.6     0.5    -0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:            Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                              79.0    78.3    78.3    78.2    75.0    76.4

High                                79.5    78.6    78.6    78.6    75.4    76.7

Low                                 78.6    77.8    77.8    77.7    74.5    76.2

Actual result                       79.2    77.8    77.8    78.2    75.4    76.7

Median-Actual                       -0.2     0.5     0.5     0.0    -0.4    -0.3

                                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex. GM        10.2    10.1     9.9    10.0    10.2     9.9

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg              0.2     0.1    -0.1     1.0    -0.1     0.8

Factory Jobs (000's)                  30      39      20      31      22      24

Auto Prod Jobs (000's)                 3       3       0       4       1      -1

Mining Jobs (000's)                    4       1       6       9       8       8

Levels:

ISM Mfg PMI                         58.2    59.3    59.1    60.8    59.3    57.3

ISM Mfg Production                  64.3    65.2    64.5    62.0    61.0    57.2

Phila. Fed Index                    24.3    27.9    22.2    25.8    22.3    23.2

Empire State Index                  20.9    19.6    17.7    13.1    22.5    15.8

Chicago PMI                         65.6    67.8    65.7    61.9    57.4    57.6

Factory Workweek                    40.9    40.8    40.7    41.0    40.9    41.1

Factory Overtime                     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.7     3.6     3.7

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]