US Data: Highlights of Market Estimates of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg estimates. The comment section

presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. 

     Empire Manufacturing Index (index)

 Wednesday, January 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           

                                                             Actual:        

                     Median:                           Jan20  Dec19  Nov19

Index                    3.6                              --    3.5    2.9   

     Comments: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to show a stabilizing

manufacturing sector for the region, rising slightly to 3.6 in another month of

growth.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (index)

 Thursday, January 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median:                                  Jan20  Dec19  Nov19

Index             3.6                                      --    2.4   10.4 

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected climb to 3.6

in January from 2.4 in December. 

Retail Sales (percent change) 

 Thursday, January 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:              

                  Median:                            Dec19  Nov19  Oct19 

Retail Sales       +0.3%                                --  +0.2%  +0.4% 

Retail ex mv       +0.5%                                --  +0.1%  +0.3% 

Retail ex mv+gas   +0.4%                                --   flat  +0.2% 

Comments: U.S. retail sales should rise 0.3% in December, outpacing a 0.2% gain

in November. Vehicle sales dropped off this month after rising 0.5% in November,

which will likely hold down headline sales. But gas prices, which rose in

December, could offset some of that drag. Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail

sales are expected to rise 0.5% after a 0.1% increase in November. A solid

December jobs report, despite a slight deceleration in wage gains, and improving

consumer confidence should support another positive month for retailers.

Import/Export Prices for December (percent change)

 Thursday, Jan. 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:

                    Median:                         Dec19   Nov19  Oct19    

Import Price Index    +0.3%                            --   +0.2%  -0.5%  

Export Price Index    +0.1%                            --   +0.2%  -0.1%  

     Comments: The import price index is expected to increase +0.3% while the

export price index is expected to rise by +0.1%, the second straight month of

increases for both indices. 

Weekly Jobless Claims (thousands)

 Thursday, Jan. 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     

                                                              Actual: 

                         Median:                         Jan11 Jan04 Dec28

Initial Claims             218K                             --  214K  222K

     Comments: Weekly jobless claims are expected to stay relatively level at

218K for the week ending January 11. 

Business Inventories for November(percent change) 

 Thursday, Jan. 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET                           Actual:

                 Median:                                Nov19  Oct19  Sep19 

Inventories       -0.2%                                    --  +0.2%  -0.1%

     Comments: Business inventories for November are expected to decrease by

-0.2%.

NAHB Home Builder Index (index)

 Thursday, Jan. 16 at 10:00 a.m. EST                         Actual:

                       Median:                          Jan20  Dec19  Nov19

Index                      74                              --     76     71   

     Comments:  The National Home Builder Index is slated to drop slightly to

74. 

Housing Starts & Building Permits (millions)                   

 Friday, Jan. 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                             Actual:

                         Median:                        Dec19  Nov19  Oct19   

Starts                   1.380m                            -- 1.365m  1.314  

Permits                  1.460m                            -- 1.482m  1.461  

     Comments: Housing Starts & Building Permits are expected to remain

relatively steady at 1.380m and 1.460m, respectively.

Industrial Production (percent change)

 Friday, Jan. 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                             

                                                             Actual:        

                          Median                        Dec19  Nov19  Oct19 

Ind. Prod.                 -0.2%                           --  +1.1%  -0.9% 

Cap. Util.                 77.0%                           --  77.3%  76.6%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to fall by -0.2% in December

with capital utilization staying nearly flat at 77.0%.

University of Michigan Survey for January (preliminary) 

 Friday, Jan. 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                            Actual: 

                          Median                       Jan20p  Dec19  Nov19

Consumer Sent               99.3                           --   99.3   96.8

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index for December is expected to remain

unchanged at 99.3.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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