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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 8/17:06 EST Aug 8
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.   
Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)
 Wednesday, August 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                   Median        Range               2Q17p   1Q17   4Q16
 Productivity       +0.8%   +0.5% to +1.5%              --   Flat  +1.8%
 Unit Labor Costs   +1.1%   +0.5% to +1.5%              --  +2.2%  -4.6%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 0.8% in the     
second quarter, above the flat reading in the first quarter as the      
output component will lift the headline figure. Unit labor costs are    
expected to rise only 1.1% in the second quarter after a 2.2% rise in   
first quarter, taking into account the faster productivity growth.      
Weekly Jobless Claims for August 5 week                                 
 Thursday, August 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Aug05  Jul29  Jul22
 Weekly Claims     240k      237k to 245k               --   240k   245k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to remain
flat at 240,000 in the August 5 week after a 5,000 decrease in the 
previous week. The four-week moving average, which fell by 2,500 in the 
July 29 week, would decline by 2,000 in the coming week as the 248,000 
level in the July 8 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI 
forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        
Producer Price Index for July (percent change)                          
 Thursday, August 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median       Range                  Jul17  Jun17  May17
 Final Demand     +0.2%    Flat to +0.3%                --  +0.1%   Flat
 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%   +0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%
     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July after a
small 0.1% rise in June. Food prices are expected to slow after a 0.6%  
gain in June, but energy prices are forecast to rebound after a 0.5%    
decline in the previous month on a return to more seasonable            
temperatures. Likewise, PPI excluding food and energy is forecast to    
rise 0.2% after a modest 0.1% gain in June.                             
Treasury Statement for July ($ billions)                                
 Thursday, August 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET                     Actual:        
           Median         Range                  Jul17    Jun17    Jul16
 Balance  -$54.0b     -$76.0b to -$40.0b            --  -$90.2b -$112.8b
     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $54.0 billion      
budget deficit in July, compared with a $112.8 billion deficit in July  
2016. Because July 1 was a Saturday, some July outlays shifted into     
June, which will reduce July outlays. As a result, the comparison with  
July 2016, which did not have the same calendar issue, will be less     
meaningful.                                                             
Consumer Price Index for July (percent change)                          
 Friday, August 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:      
              Median         Range                   Jul17  Jun17  May17
 CPI           +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --   Flat  -0.1%
 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%
     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July following a flat
reading in June. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound modestly after
another sharp decline in June, as temperatures across the country picked
up to lift electricity usage. Food prices are expected to remain tame   
after a flat June reading. The core CPI is also forecast to rise 0.2%   
following a third straight 0.1% increase in June, but vehicle and       
apparel prices were again cited as drags on the core number that prevent
it from breaking out of its recent trend.                               
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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