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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.      
New Home Sales for August (annual rate)                                 
 Tuesday, September 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Aug17  Jul17  Jun17
 New Homes       581k      555k to 620k                 --   571k   630k
     Comments: New home sales are expected to accelerate modesty to a   
581,000 annual rate in August following a sharp 9.4% decline in July.   
Unadjusted sales were down 9.3% from a year earlier before seasonal     
adjustment. Home supply rose by 1.5% in July, lifting the months supply 
to 5.8 months, so there should be adequate homes available for an August
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for September (index)              
 Tuesday, September 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
              Median            Range                Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Confidence    120.0     118.0 to 121.9                 --  122.9  120.0
     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall to a
reading of 120.0 in September after a further increase in August, as the
impact of Hurricanes and Irma weighed on confidence. The Michigan       
Sentiment Index fell to 95.3 in early-September from 96.8 in the        
previous month.                                                         
Durable Goods Orders for August (percent change)                        
 Wednesday, September 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
               Median        Range                   Aug17  Jul17  Jun17
 New Orders      0.8%     -0.6% to 2.8%                 --  -6.8%  +6.4%
 Ex-Transport    0.3%      Flat to 0.7%                 --  +0.6%   Flat
     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.8% in     
August after a 6.8% plunge in July, as analysts expect little hurricane 
impact. Boeing orders rebounded to 33 after falling to 22 in July,      
suggesting nondefense aircraft orders should rebound. Orders excluding  
transportation are expected to rise 0.3% after a 0.6% increase in July. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 23 week                             
 Thursday, September 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
                  Median         Range               Sep23  Sep16  Sep09
 Weekly Claims      265k   250k to 300k                 --   259k   282k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       
rebound by 6,000 to 265,000 in the September 23 week after a 23,000    
decline in the previous week. Initial and continuing filings in         
hurricane-impact regions should begin to show any back-logged claims in 
areas where filing could not occur in previous weeks. Seasonal factors  
expect a slight unadjusted decrease this week, so any unadjusted gain   
would translate into a larger adjusted increase. The four-week moving   
average would rise by 7,250 in the coming week as the 236,000 level in 
the August 26 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI       
forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                         
GDP for Second Quarter (third estimate)                                 
 Thursday, September 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
               Median        Range                   2Q17t  2Q17s   1Q17
 GDP            +3.0%     +3.0% to 3.2%                 --  +3.0%  +1.2%
 Chain Prices   +1.0      +1.0% to 1.0%                 --  +1.0%  +2.0%
     Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to be remain unrevised from the 
3.0% gain in the second estimate, while looking ahead to a softer 3Q growth 
pace. Analysts expect business fixed investment and inventories to be revised 
up. The chain price index is   expected to be unrevised at a 1.0% rate of
Personal Income for August (percent change)                             
 Friday, September 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Aug17  Jul17  Jun17
 Income       +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.4%   Flat  
 Spending     +0.1%       Flat to +0.2%               --  +0.3%  +0.2%  
 Core Prices  +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.2%               --  +0.1%  +0.1%  
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise a more modest 0.2% in
August, as payrolls rose by only 156,000, average weekly hours slipped  
to 34.4 hours and hourly earnings rose a modest 0.1%. Current dollar PCE
is forecast to tick up by 0.1%, as retail sales fell 0.2% in the month  
and were up only 0.2% excluding a 1.6% decline in motor vehicle sales.  
Core retail sales (also ex. gas) were down 0.1% in the month, while     
sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services fell   
0.2%, indicating underlying weakness partially resulting from the       
hurricanes. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase
in August, reflecting the stronger CPI gain. The year/year gain should  
remain below 2%.                                                        
MNI Chicago Report for September (index)                                
 Friday, September 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 MNI Chicago    59.0       58.0 to 60.0                 --   58.9   58.9
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise modestly to a    
reading of 59.0 in September after holding steady at 58.9 in August.    
Other regional data already released suggest solid growth.              
University of Michigan Survey for September (final)                     
 Friday, September 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
                Median        Range                 Sep17f Sep17p  Aug17
 Consumer Sent    95.3     94.5 to 96.0                --   95.3   96.8 
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised    
from the 95.3 preliminary estimate, with a downside risk as further hurricane 
impacts should be seen.                                                         
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

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