US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Factory Orders for May (percent change)                                 

 Tuesday, July 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 New Orders    -0.1%      -0.2% to +0.2%                --  -0.8%  +1.7%

 Ex Transport  --            -- to --                   --  +0.4%  +0.5%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to decline by 0.1% in May.   

Durable goods orders fell by 0.6% in the month on a decline in          

nondefense aircraft orders and motor vehicles, while nondurables orders 

are expected to strong due to price related gains in the energy         

components. Durable orders excluding transportation were down 0.3%,     

suggesting factory orders excluding transportation may also be soft.    

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for June (mln units, saar)                 

 Tuesday, July 3                                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Sales Ex GM   --            -- to --                   --   9.9m   9.9m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to hold         

relatively steady in June after holding at 9.9 million in May. Seasonal 

adjustment factors will subtract slightly less from June sales than they

did from May sales.                                                     

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 30 week                                  

 Thursday, July 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun30  Jun23  Jun16

 Weekly Claims 224k         220k to 230k                --   227k   218k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 3,000 to 224,000 in the June 30 week after rising by 9,000 to 227,000

in the previous week, keeping the level in its tight range. The         

four-week moving average would rise by 500 in the coming week as the    

222,000 level in the June 2 week drops out of the calculation, assuming 

the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                 

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for June                                    

 Thursday, July 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 ISM NMI       58.2        57.6 to 59.0                 --   58.6   56.8

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to pull back  

slightly to a reading of 58.2 in June from 58.6 in May. The Philadelphia

nonmanufacturing index fell to 39.1, while the flash Markit Services    

index fell to 56.5.                                                     

Nonfarm Payrolls for June (change in thousands)                         

 Friday, July 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun 18 May18  Apr18

 Payrolls      +195k      +180k to +212k                 -- +223k  +159k

 Private Job   +189k      +180k to +210k                 -- +218k  +162k

 Jobless Rate   3.8%       3.7% to 3.8%                  --  3.8%   3.9%

 Hrly Earnings +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.3%                 -- +0.3%  +0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.5       34.4 to 34.5                  --  34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 195,000 in June 

after a stronger-than-expected 223,000 rise in May. The unemployment    

rate is expected to hold at 3.8% after falling further to the           

decades-low level in the previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to

rise by 0.3% for the second month in a row, after the upside surprise   

last month, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours

for the fifth consecutive month.                                        

Trade in Goods and Services for May (deficit, billion $)                

 Friday, July 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                May18   Apr18   Mar18

 Trade Gap     -$43.5b  -$44.0b to -$42.8b            -- -$46.2b -$47.2b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to     

$43.5 billion in May from $46.2 billion in April. The advance estimate  

of the Census goods trade gap narrowed to $64.8 billion, as export      

growth sharply outpaced import growth in the month.                     

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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