US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 13/17:06 EST Sep 13

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Retail and Food Sales for August (percent change)                       

 Friday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Retail Sales   +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.5%  +0.2%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.6%  +0.2%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in August after a 

surprise 0.5% gain in July. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor      

vehicle sales rose slightly in August, but AAA reported that gasoline   

prices slipped modestly in mid-August from one month earlier. However,  

strength in CPI gas prices suggsest that category could be up as well.  

Retail sales are expected to also be up 0.5% excluding motor vehicles   

after a 0.6% rise in July, a further sign of underlying strength in the 

third quarter.                                                          

Industrial Production for August (percent change)                       

 Friday, September 14 at 9:15 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Ind Prod      +0.4%     -0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +1.0%

 Cap Util      78.3%     78.1% to 78.5%                 --  78.1%  78.1%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in August 

after a small gain in July. Factory payrolls fell by 3,000 in August,   

while auto production jobs fell by 5,000 and the factory workweek was   

unchanged at 41.0 hours. However, the ISM production index jumped to    

63.3 in the current month from 58.5 in the previous month. Utilities    

production is expected to move higher in the month on the               

hotter-than-usual weather after a further decline in the previous month,

while mining production is forecast to resume their upward path after   

declining for the first time in five months in July. Capacity           

utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 78.1% in July.            

Business Inventories for July (percent change)                          

 Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

              Median           Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Inventories   +0.6%      +0.5% to +0.6%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.6% in     

July. Factory inventories were already reported up 0.8% in the month,   

while wholesale inventories rose 0.6%, and the advance report showed    

retail inventories rose 0.4%. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks  

for a 0.6% increase for business inventories at this point, so the      

median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to retail             

inventories. As for sales, both factory shipments and wholesale         

inventories were flat and the advance estimate for retail trade sales   

was a 0.4% gain, so the data suggest business sales was only mildly     

positive in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales.       

University of Michigan Survey for September (preliminary)               

 Friday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Sep18p  Aug18  Jul18

 Consumer Sent    97.0    96.0 to 98.2                  --   96.2   97.9

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to 97.0 

in early-September from 96.2 in August.                                 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]