US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 21/17:06 EST Sep 21

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for September (index)

 Tuesday, September 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Confidence     131.7    131.7 to 131.7                 --  133.4  127.9

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall back 

to a reading of 131.7 in September after surging further in August. 

Stable gas prices and rising stocks prices are positive factors for 

another gain. The Michigan Sentiment Index surged to 100.8 in 

early-September from 96.2 in August. 

New Home Sales for August (annual rate)

 Wednesday, September 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 New Homes       627k     624k to 630k                  --   627k   638k 

     Comments: New home sales are expected to hold steady at a 627,000 

annual rate in August following declines in the previous two months. 

Unadjusted sales were up 10.4% from a year earlier in July. Meanwhile, 

home supply was up 2.0% month/month and 12.0% year/year, so the supply 

is rising and should be more than adequate to meet demand. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 22 week                                

 Thursday, September 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Sep22  Sep15  Sep08

 Weekly Claims   222k     222k to 222k                  --   201k   204k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 21,000 to a 222,000 level in the September 22 week after a decrease 

to 201,000 in the previous week to another 49-year low. The impact of 

Hurricane Florence will begin to be seen in this week's data. The 

four-week moving average would rise by 2,250 in the coming week as the 

213,000 level in the August 25 week rolls out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Durable Goods Orders for August (percent change)

 Thursday, September 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18 

 New Orders     +2.0%    +1.5% to +4.8%                 --  -1.7%  +0.9% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.6%                 --  +0.1%  +0.3%

     Comments: Durable goods are expected to rise by 2.0% in August 

after an unrevised 1.7% decline in July. Boeing reported 99 orders in 

August, up sharply from 30 orders in July. Durable goods orders 

excluding transportation orders are expected to rise by 0.5% in August. 

GDP for Second Quarter (third estimate)

 Thursday, September 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  2Q18t  2Q18s   1Q18

 GDP            +4.2%    +4.1% to +4.3%                 --  +4.2%  +2.2% 

 Chain Prices   +3.0%    +3.0% to +3.0%                 --  +3.0%  +2.0%

     Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at a 4.2% 

pace, while the chain price index is forecast to be unrevised at a 3.0% 

pace. Analysts have turned their attention to third quarter growth, 

which is expected to be softer than the second quarter pace, followed by 

a stronger fourth quarter pace on post-hurricane rebuilding. 

Personal Income for August (percent change)                          

 Friday, September 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Income         +0.4%     +0.4% to +0.5%                --  +0.3%  +0.4% 

 Spending       +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.4%                --  +0.4%  +0.4%

 Core Prices    +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.2%                --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in August, as 

payrolls rose by 201,000 and hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, while average 

weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to 

rise by 0.4% after a 0.4% July gain that could see an upward revision 

based on the retail sales data. Total retail sales rose by only 0.1% in 

the month after an upward revised 0.7% July gain. Sales were up 0.3% in 

August excluding a 0.8% decline in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales 

excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services were up only 

0.1% after an upward revised 0.8% July gain. The core PCE price index is 

expected to post a 0.2% increase in June, so the y/y rate could tick up 

to 2.1%. 

MNI Chicago Report for September (index)                                 

 Friday, September 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 MNI Chicago     62.0     60.0 to 64.5                  --   63.6   65.5

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to decline further to a 

reading of 62.0 in September after dipping slightly to 63.6 in August. 

Other regional data already released have suggested an improved growth 

pace, with the Empire State reading falling back modestly, but the 

Philadelphia Fed rebounding solidly. 

University of Michigan Survey for September (final)          

 Friday, September 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Sep18f Sep18p  Aug18

 Consumer Sent   100.8   100.8 to 100.8                 --  100.8   96.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised 

at 100.8 reading in September, still well above the 96.2 reading in 

August. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]