US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Retail and Food Sales for January (percent change)                      

 Monday, March 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Retail Sales   -0.1%     -0.9% to +0.5%                --  -1.2%  +0.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.2%     -0.6% to +0.9%                --  -1.8%   Flat

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to fall by 0.1% in January 

after a 1.2% plunge in December that resulted from declines in almost 

every category except vehicle sales. Analysts expect vehicles to offer 

some payback in January. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle 

sales slowed in January, while AAA reported that gasoline prices fell 

further in mid-January from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected 

to rise by only 0.2% excluding motor vehicles after a 1.8% decline in 

December. 

Business Inventories for December (percent change)                      

 Monday, March 11 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Inventories   +0.6%       +0.4% to +0.8%               --  -0.1%  +0.6%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.6% in 

December. Factory inventories were already reported as flat in the 

month, while wholesale inventories rose 1.1%, and the advance retail 

inventories estimate was a 0.9% gain, so an MNI estimate for business 

inventories is for a 0.6% gain. As for sales, factory shipments fell 

0.2% and wholesale sales were down 1.0%, while the advance estimate for 

retail trade sales was a 1.3% decline, so the data suggest business 

sales were down 0.8% in the month pending any revision to retail trade 

sales. 

Consumer Price Index for February (percent change)                       

 Tuesday, March 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 CPI           +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%                 --   Flat   Flat 

 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in February after a 

gasoline-related dip in January. A rebound in gasoline prices, as 

evidenced by the monthly AAA data, will be a key factor. The core CPI is 

forecast to rise by 0.2% for the fifth straight month. 

Producer Price Index for February (percent change)

 Wednesday, March 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Final Demand     +0.2%     -0.1% to +0.3%              --  -0.1%  -0.1% 

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.3%      Flat to +0.7%              --  +0.3%   Flat

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in February 

after a 0.1% January decrease that was due to another sharp energy 

decline and a pull-back in food prices. Energy prices are expected to 

partially rebound following a 3.8% January decrease. Excluding food and 

energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise by 0.3%, the same as in January. 

Durable Goods Orders for January (percent change)

 Wednesday, March 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18 

 New Orders     -0.5%     -2.3% to +1.9%                --  +1.2%  +0.9% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.1%     -1.4% to +1.4%                --  +0.1%  -0.2%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to fall by 0.5% in 

January after rising by 1.2% in December. Boeing orders fell sharply in 

January, which should allow transportation orders to pull back. However, 

seasonal adjustment factors could offset much of that decline. Durable 

goods orders excluding transportation are expected to rise by 0.1% for a 

second straight month. 

Construction Spending for January (percent change)                        

 Wednesday, March 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Construction   +0.3%     -0.2% to +0.7%                --  -0.6%  +0.8%

     Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by 

0.3% in January. Housing starts rebounded by 18.6% in the month, a 

strong positive for residential construction activity after a weak 

December reading. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 9 week                                

 Thursday, March 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Mar09  Mar02  Feb23

 Weekly Claims   225k      220k to 228k                 --   233k   226k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 2,000 to 225,000 in the March 9 week after a decrease of 3,000 in the 

previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by an additional 

3,500 this week as the 239,000 level in the February 9 week rolls out of 

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

New Home Sales for January (annual rate)

 Thursday, March 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 New Homes       630k      575k to 641k                 --   621k   599k 

     Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to rise further to 

a 630,000 annual rate in January after solid December rebound. Sales in 

October and November were revised lower, while sales in December were 

still down from a year earlier. 

Empire State Index for March (diffusion index)

 Friday, March 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Empire Index      10.0      6.0 to 15.0                --    8.8    3.9

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to move higher to 10.0 

in March after rebounding to 8.8 in February. The manufacturing measures 

have moderated in recent months, but continue to exhibit positive 

growth. 

Industrial Production for February (percent change)

 Friday, March 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Ind Prod      +0.4%       Flat to +1.1%                --  -0.6%  +0.1% 

 Cap Util      78.5%      78.1% to 79.0%                --  78.2%  78.8%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rebound by 0.4% in 

February after a 0.6% decline in January, with a number of negative 

signs for manufacturing production after January's decline. Factory 

payrolls rose by only 4,000 in February, with auto production jobs up 

1,000, while the factory workweek contracted further to 40.7 hours from 

40.8 hours in January. The ISM production index fell to 54.8 in the 

current month from 60.5 in the previous month. Utilities production is 

expected to surge on harsh weather in the month after a modest 0.4% rise 

in January, while mining production is expected to continue its upward 

path. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.5% after falling to 

78.2% in January. 

University of Michigan Survey for March (preliminary)          

 Friday, March 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:

                Median        Range                 Mar19p  Feb19  Jan19

 Consumer Sent    95.5     94.0 to 97.0                 --   93.8   91.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to 95.5 

in early-March from 93.8 in February, reflecting rising stock prices and 

still-low gasoline prices.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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