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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Nonfarm payrolls growth was weaker than expected in August and also saw heavy downward revisions, even if the latter were mainly in June rather than a sign of a particularly sharp recent deterioration.
- Importantly, the unemployment rate also broadly stabilized at 4.22% after 4.25% (flattered by rounding), ruling out an increase that could have been seen as a sign of non-linear climb after the 0.20pp rise in July.
- AHE growth was clearly stronger than expected but is seen against a backdrop of strong productivity growth – it isn’t likely to be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon per Powell.
- When combined with prominent FOMC members Williams and Waller not explicitly calling for a 50bp cut, odds of such a move at the Sep 17-18 FOMC meeting faded.
- At still 31bp of cuts priced, US CPI and PPI inflation this week remain a notable risk event with the FOMC in blackout, but we suspect an inline print would see 50bp odds fall further.
- A clear majority of analysts look for the Fed to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: USEmploymentReportSep2024.pdf
MNI (LONDON)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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