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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 28/17:06 EST Jun 28
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                       
Construction Spending for May (percent change)                          
 Monday, July 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 Construction   +0.4%    -0.6% to +0.6%                 --   Flat  +0.1%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in May 
after holding steady in April. Housing starts fell in the month, so     
residential construction could add to the string of declines.           
ISM Manufacturing Index for June                                        
 Monday, July 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Mfg ISM         51.3     50.0 to 53.0                  --   52.1   52.8
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a  
reading of 51.3 in June, a third straight decline. Regional conditions  
data have suggested considerable weakness, with some readings turning   
negative.                                                               
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for June (mln units, saar)                 
 Tuesday, July 2                                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.7m   7.1m
     Comments: The pace of domestic vehicle sales is expected to decline
after rising sharply to 7.7 million in May. Seasonal factors will be a  
smaller subtraction from unadjusted sales than in May.                  
Weekly Jobless Claims for June 29 week                                  
 Wednesday, July 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun29  Jun22  Jun15
 Weekly Claims   222k     220k to 230k                  --   227k   217k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       
decline by 5,000 to 222,000 in the June 29 week after an increase to    
227,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by
750 this week as the 219,000 level in the June 1 survey week rolls out  
of the calculation.                                                     
Trade in Goods and Services for May (deficit, billion $)                
 Wednesday, July 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:         
               Median         Range                May19   Apr19   Mar19
 Trade Gap    -$53.6b  -$54.6b to -$48.7b             -- -$50.8b -$51.9b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $53.6
billion in May after narrowing in April. The advance trade report       
released on June 26 showed a sharp widening of the Census trade gap in  
May.                                                                    
Factory Orders for May (percent change)                                 
 Wednesday, July 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 New Orders     -0.7%    -1.0% to +0.1%                 --  -0.8%  +1.3%
 Ex-Transport                                           --  +0.3%  +0.3%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.7% in May,      
reflecting a 1.3% decline in durable goods orders and a decline in      
nondurable goods orders.                                                
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for June                                    
 Wednesday, July 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 ISM NMI         56.0     55.0 to 56.9                  --   56.9   55.5
     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to fall to  
56.0 in June after rising to 56.9 in May. The flash Markit services     
estimate fell slightly to 50.7, while the Dallas services reading       
rebounded to 3.2 from -0.3 and the Richmond Fed services reading slipped
to 3 from 5.                                                            
Nonfarm Payrolls for June (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, July 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Payrolls       +169k    +125k to +205k                 --   +75k  +224k
 Private Jobs   +155k    +125k to +180k                 --   +90k  +205k
 Jobless Rate    3.6%     3.5% to 3.7%                  --   3.6%   3.6%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.2%  +0.2%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4     34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 169,000 in June 
after a much weaker-than-expected 75,000 rise in May. The unemployment  
rate is expected to stay at the 50-year low of 3.6%. Hourly earnings are
forecast to rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at
34.4 hours in April.                                                    
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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