Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.    
Factory Orders for January (percent change)                             
 Tuesday, March 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
              Median             Range               Jan18  Dec17  Nov17
 New Orders    -1.3%        -1.5% to -0.8%              --  +1.7%  +1.7%
 Ex Transport     NA           NA to NA                 --  +0.7%  +1.1%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 1.3% in January.  
Durable goods orders fell by 3.7% in the month on a plunge in aircraft  
orders, but nondurables orders are expected to rise further due to      
higher energy prices, providing some offset. Factory orders are expected
to be roughly flat excluding the transportation component. Durable      
orders excluding transportation fell by 0.3%.                           
Trade in Goods and Services for January (deficit, billion $)            
 Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:         
              Median        Range                  Jan18   Dec17   Nov17
 Trade Gap   -$55.1b    -$55.9b to -$54.0b            -- -$53.1b -$50.4b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $55.1
billion in January from a $53.1 billion gap in December. The advance    
estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened further to $74.4 billion,
with exports down 2.2% and imports down only 0.5%.                      
Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)    
 Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:         
                   Median           Range           4Q17r   4Q17p   3Q17
 Productivity       -0.1%       -0.2% to +0.7%         --   -0.1%  +1.5%
 Unit Labor Costs   +2.1%       +2.0% to +2.5%         --   +2.0%  -1.2%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be unrevised at a    
0.1% decline, as the output component was virtually unrevised, but the  
gain in hours worked should be revised lower. Unit labor costs are      
expected to be revised up to a 2.1% pace of growth.                     
Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)                   
 Wednesday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                      Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Jan18   Dec17   Nov17
 Cons Cred   +$17.8b     +$10.0b to +$19.0b           -- +$18.4b +$31.0b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $17.8 billion in  
January after an $18.4 billion increase in December. Retail sales fell  
by 0.3% and were flat excluding motor vehicles, even weaker than the    
soft revised December figures.                                          
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 3 week                                  
 Thursday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Mar03  Feb24  Feb17
 Weekly Claims     220k      215k to 225k               --   210k   220k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 10,000 to 220,000 in the March 3 week, fully reversing the 10,000    
decline in the previous week to a 49-year low. The four-week moving     
average would fall by 750 in the coming week, as the 223,000 level in   
the February 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI      
forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                         
Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, March 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17
 Payrolls       +210k    +175k to +250k                 --  +200k  +160k
 Private Job    +200k    +185k to +220k                 --  +196k  +156k
 Jobless Rate    4.0%     4.0% to 4.1%                  --   4.1%   4.1%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.3%  +0.4%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4     34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.3   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 210,000 in      
February after a stronger-than-expected 200,000 reading in January. The 
unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0%. Hourly earnings are       
forecast to rise only 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in January that reflected  
difficulties with low wage hourly workers getting to work due to        
weather, while the average workweek is expected to rebound to 34.4 hours
after dipping to 34.3 in January for the same reason.                   
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.