MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Taking Job Gains With Grain Of Salt

BRIEF: EU Says Engaging With China Over EV Trade Dispute

MNI BRIEF: Draghi Calls For Tariffs, Subsidies Against China

MNI BRIEF: China May M2 Slows To Record Low Again

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

US Treasury Auction Calendar

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 590; OIL RIGS 488; GAS RIGS 98

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Slovakia, Belgium, BoE APF Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Apr 27/17:06 EST Apr 27
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts. 
Personal Income for March (percent change)                              
 Monday, April 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
 Income         +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.5%               --   +0.4%  +0.4%
 Spending       +0.4%     +0.4% to +0.5%               --   +0.2%  +0.2%
 Core Prices    +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%               --   +0.2%  +0.3%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in March, as 
payrolls rose only 103,000 surge, but hourly earnings rose by 0.3% and  
average weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is        
forecast to rise by 0.4% after a 0.2% February increase. Total retail   
sales rose by 0.6% in the month and were up 0.2% excluding a 2.0% surge 
in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building     
materials and food services were up 0.4%, indicating underlying growth. 
The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in February
following a 0.2% gain in February, so the year/year rate move close to  
2% on base factors, specifically a 0.2% decline in March 2017. The      
year/year rate last reached 2% in 2012.                                 
MNI Chicago Report for April (index)                                    
 Monday, April 30 at 9:45 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 MNI Chicago     57.8      57.8 to 57.8                 --   57.4   61.9
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to tick up to a reading  
of 57.8 in March after dipping further to 57.4 in March. Other regional 
data already released were mixed. The Empire State reading was down     
modestly, the Philadelphia Fed reading up modestly, and the Kansas City 
Fed reading up sharply. However, the reading from the Richmond Fed      
turned negative in the month.                                           
ISM Manufacturing Index for April                                       
 Tuesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 Mfg ISM         58.3      57.2 to 59.5                 --   59.3   60.8
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline       
further to a reading of 58.3 in April after a dip to 59.3 in March.     
Regional conditions data have suggested continued strong growth, with   
the exception of the Richmond Fed. The Markit manufacturing reading rose
slightly to 56.5 in its flash reading for April from 55.6 in March.     
Construction Spending for March (percent change)                        
 Tuesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
 Construction   +0.5%     +0.2% to +1.0%                --  +0.1%   Flat
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in     
March. Housing starts rose solidly in the month, suggesting private     
residential building ticked up further after a 0.1% gain in the previous
month.                                                                  
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for April (mln units, saar)                
 Tuesday, May 1                                          Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 Sales Ex GM      --         -- to --                   --  10.2m   9.9m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to rise modestly
in April after accelerating in March. Seasonal adjustment factors will  
add slightly to unadjusted April sales after subtracting from them in   
March. This will be the first month where GM sales are not included due 
to their decision to switch to quarterly reporting.                     
Trade in Goods and Services for March (deficit, billion $)              
 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            
              Median        Range                  Mar18   Feb18   Jan18
 Trade Gap   -$50.0b   -$57.0b to -$47.5b             -- -$57.6b -$56.7b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow sharply
to $50.0 billion in March from a $57.6 billion gap in February. The     
advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap narrowed sharply to $68.0
billion, with exports up 2.5% and imports down 2.1%.                    
Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 
 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            
                   Median           Range           1Q18p    4Q17   3Q17
 Productivity       +0.9%      +0.8% to +1.3%          --    Flat  +2.6%
 Unit Labor Costs   +3.0%      +1.3% to +3.2%          --   +2.5%  +1.0%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 0.9% in the     
first quarter after a flat reading in the previous quarter. The output  
component should be softer, but still positive, while hours worked      
growth roughly unchanged. Unit labor costs are expected to rise 3.0%    
after a 2.5% jump in the fourth quarter.                                
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for April                                   
 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 ISM NMI        58.1     57.8 to 59.2                   --   58.8   59.5
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a  
reading of 58.1 in April from 58.8 in March. The Philadelphia           
nonmanufacturing index fell to 27.6, while the flash Markit Services    
index rose to 54.4.                                                     
Factory Orders for March (percent change)                               
 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median             Range               Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
 New Orders    +1.2%       +0.6% to +1.8%               --  +1.2%  -1.3%
 Ex Transport   --            -- to --                  --  +0.1%  +0.4%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise solidly in March.    
Durable goods orders jumped by 2.6% in the month on another sharp gain  
in aircraft orders, but nondurables orders are expected to be negatively
impacted by soft energy prices. Factory orders are forecast to be soft  
excluding the transportation component, as durable orders excluding     
transportation were flat.                                               
Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands)                        
 Friday, May 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 Payrolls       +185k      +145k to +255k               --  +103k  +326k
 Private Job    +191k      +175k to +250k               --  +102k  +320k
 Jobless Rate    4.0%        4.0% to 4.0%               --   4.1%   4.1%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.3%  +0.1%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5        34.4 to 34.5               --   34.5   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in April
after a much weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a strong    
326,000 rise in February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to  
4.0% after holding steady at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are 
forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while the average workweek is  
expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.                
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Close
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
 of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        window.dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'logedout',
    'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut'
  });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        (function appendPosts () {  
    var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span');
    policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts);
    policyPosts.style.display = "block";
  
    var empolicyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('em-policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var empolicyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.em-policy-posts-span');
    empolicyPostsMenu.append(empolicyPosts);
    empolicyPosts.style.display = "block";

    var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span');
    dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts);
    dataPosts.style.display = "block";
})();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){
  item.href="/core/users/email_login/";
  item.innerHTML="Log In";
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) {
    img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return false;
    });
  });
  document
    .querySelector(".site-logo img")
    .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return true;
    });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        
  let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)");
  window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts");
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        /*
const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container');
const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content');
const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream');
if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) {
  if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) {
    console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight);
    stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px';
  }
}
*/
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});