US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Apr 27/17:06 EST Apr 27

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Personal Income for March (percent change)                              

 Monday, April 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Income         +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.5%               --   +0.4%  +0.4%

 Spending       +0.4%     +0.4% to +0.5%               --   +0.2%  +0.2%

 Core Prices    +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%               --   +0.2%  +0.3%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in March, as 

payrolls rose only 103,000 surge, but hourly earnings rose by 0.3% and  

average weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is        

forecast to rise by 0.4% after a 0.2% February increase. Total retail   

sales rose by 0.6% in the month and were up 0.2% excluding a 2.0% surge 

in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building     

materials and food services were up 0.4%, indicating underlying growth. 

The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in February

following a 0.2% gain in February, so the year/year rate move close to  

2% on base factors, specifically a 0.2% decline in March 2017. The      

year/year rate last reached 2% in 2012.                                 

MNI Chicago Report for April (index)                                    

 Monday, April 30 at 9:45 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 MNI Chicago     57.8      57.8 to 57.8                 --   57.4   61.9

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to tick up to a reading  

of 57.8 in March after dipping further to 57.4 in March. Other regional 

data already released were mixed. The Empire State reading was down     

modestly, the Philadelphia Fed reading up modestly, and the Kansas City 

Fed reading up sharply. However, the reading from the Richmond Fed      

turned negative in the month.                                           

ISM Manufacturing Index for April                                       

 Tuesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Mfg ISM         58.3      57.2 to 59.5                 --   59.3   60.8

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline       

further to a reading of 58.3 in April after a dip to 59.3 in March.     

Regional conditions data have suggested continued strong growth, with   

the exception of the Richmond Fed. The Markit manufacturing reading rose

slightly to 56.5 in its flash reading for April from 55.6 in March.     

Construction Spending for March (percent change)                        

 Tuesday, May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Construction   +0.5%     +0.2% to +1.0%                --  +0.1%   Flat

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in     

March. Housing starts rose solidly in the month, suggesting private     

residential building ticked up further after a 0.1% gain in the previous

month.                                                                  

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for April (mln units, saar)                

 Tuesday, May 1                                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Sales Ex GM      --         -- to --                   --  10.2m   9.9m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to rise modestly

in April after accelerating in March. Seasonal adjustment factors will  

add slightly to unadjusted April sales after subtracting from them in   

March. This will be the first month where GM sales are not included due 

to their decision to switch to quarterly reporting.                     

Trade in Goods and Services for March (deficit, billion $)              

 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            

              Median        Range                  Mar18   Feb18   Jan18

 Trade Gap   -$50.0b   -$57.0b to -$47.5b             -- -$57.6b -$56.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow sharply

to $50.0 billion in March from a $57.6 billion gap in February. The     

advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap narrowed sharply to $68.0

billion, with exports up 2.5% and imports down 2.1%.                    

Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:            

                   Median           Range           1Q18p    4Q17   3Q17

 Productivity       +0.9%      +0.8% to +1.3%          --    Flat  +2.6%

 Unit Labor Costs   +3.0%      +1.3% to +3.2%          --   +2.5%  +1.0%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 0.9% in the     

first quarter after a flat reading in the previous quarter. The output  

component should be softer, but still positive, while hours worked      

growth roughly unchanged. Unit labor costs are expected to rise 3.0%    

after a 2.5% jump in the fourth quarter.                                

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for April                                   

 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 ISM NMI        58.1     57.8 to 59.2                   --   58.8   59.5

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a  

reading of 58.1 in April from 58.8 in March. The Philadelphia           

nonmanufacturing index fell to 27.6, while the flash Markit Services    

index rose to 54.4.                                                     

Factory Orders for March (percent change)                               

 Thursday, May 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median             Range               Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 New Orders    +1.2%       +0.6% to +1.8%               --  +1.2%  -1.3%

 Ex Transport   --            -- to --                  --  +0.1%  +0.4%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise solidly in March.    

Durable goods orders jumped by 2.6% in the month on another sharp gain  

in aircraft orders, but nondurables orders are expected to be negatively

impacted by soft energy prices. Factory orders are forecast to be soft  

excluding the transportation component, as durable orders excluding     

transportation were flat.                                               

Nonfarm Payrolls for April (change in thousands)                        

 Friday, May 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Payrolls       +185k      +145k to +255k               --  +103k  +326k

 Private Job    +191k      +175k to +250k               --  +102k  +320k

 Jobless Rate    4.0%        4.0% to 4.0%               --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.3%  +0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5        34.4 to 34.5               --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in April

after a much weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a strong    

326,000 rise in February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to  

4.0% after holding steady at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while the average workweek is  

expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.                

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]