US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 15/17:06 EST Jul 15

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.

Retail and Food Sales for June (percent change)                         

 Monday, July 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Retail Sales  +0.6%     +0.5% to +0.8%                 --  +0.8%  +0.4%

 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.9%  +0.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.6% in June on the 

heels of a strong 0.8% gain in May and an upward revision to April. Not 

seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales accelerated modestly in

June, while AAA reported that gasoline prices rose further in mid-June  

from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise only 0.3%     

excluding motor vehicles after a 0.9% surge in April, but               

better-than-normal weather in the month may have lifted spending at     

restaurants and purchases of summer clothing, so there is an upside     

risk.                                                                   

Empire State Index for July (diffusion index)                           

 Monday, July 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Empire Index     20.0      19.0 to 22.5                --   25.0   20.1

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to pull back to a     

reading of 20.0 in July after rising further to 25.0 in June.           

Business Inventories for May (percent change)                           

 Monday, July 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median           Range                 May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Inventories  +0.4%        +0.3% to +0.4%               --  +0.3%  -0.1%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.4% in May.   

Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.2% in the month, while

wholesale inventories rose 0.6%. The advance report showed a 0.4% gain  

for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a  

0.4% increase for business inventories, so the median forecast suggests 

analysts see no revision to retail inventories. As for sales, factory   

shipments were up 0.6%, wholesale sales surged by 2.5% and the advance  

estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.8% gain, suggesting a 1.3% rise 

for business sales, assuming no large revision to the retail trade sales

increase.                                                               

Industrial Production for June (percent change)                         

 Tuesday, July 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Ind Prod      +0.5%       +0.4% to +0.7%               --  -0.1%  +0.9%

 Cap Util      78.3%       78.1% to 78.4%               --  77.9%  78.1%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% in June   

after a surprise decline in May on a special factor--a fire at a truck  

supply plant. Factory payrolls rose by 36,000 in June, while auto       

production jobs rose by 12,000 and the factory workweek was rose to 40.9

hours, up from 40.8 hours in May. The ISM production index rose to 62.3 

in the current month from 61.5 in the previous month. Utilities         

production is expected to flatten in the month after a further gain in  

the previous month, but with an upside risk due to warmer-than-usual    

weather. Mining production is expected to continue it's string of gain. 

Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 77.9% in May.    

Housing Starts for June (annual rate, million)                          

 Wednesday, July 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Starts    1.320m       1.300m to 1.325m                -- 1.350m 1.286m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to slow modestly to a 1.320 million annual rate in June after  

rising in May. The NAHB index fell to 68 in June from 70 in May. As     

inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to  

boost output. The pace of building permits is expected to rise to a     

1.340 million rate from the unrevised 1.301 million rate in May.        

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 14 week                                  

 Thursday, July 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jul14  Jul07  Jun30

 Weekly Claims  220k      220k to 220k                  --   214k   232k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 6,000 to 220,000 in the July 14 employment survey week after 

a surprise 18,000 decline to 214,000 in the previous week. Summer       

retooling shutdowns typically make July claims data less reliable. The  

level of claims was at 218,000 in the June 16 employment survey week.   

The four-week moving average would rise by only 500 in the coming week  

as that 218,000 level in the June 16 week drops out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for July (diffusion index)           

 Thursday, July 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Phila Fed        22.0      18.0 to 24.5                --   19.9   34.4

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound        

modestly to a reading of 22.0 in July after a sharp decline to 19.9 in  

June                                                                    

Leading Indicators for June (percent change)                            

 Thursday, July 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Leading Index   +0.4%       +0.4% to +0.4%             --  +0.2%  +0.4%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.4% in June. Positive contributions are expected from a rising stock   

prices and a likely rebound in factory orders. A decline in consumer    

expectations may provide some offset.                                   

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]