US DATA
The ISM manufacturing survey was broadly stronger than expected with some encouraging signs from new orders in November. The activity data are sequentially supported by the recent gains in the PMI. Prices paid falling back limited hawkish reaction to the data although the series has been particularly volatile recently.
- ISM mfg: 48.4 (cons 47.5, 56 estimates) after 46.5, its highest since June.
- New orders: 50.4 (cons 48.0, 3 estimates) after 47.1, its highest since March after the strongest monthly increase since June. It starts to follow what has been a strong improvement in services new orders in recent months – see chart.
- Employment: 48.1 (cons 47.0, 3 estimates) after 44.4, its highest since June and the strongest monthly increase since Aug 2022.
- Prices paid: 50.3 (cons 55.2, 6 estimates) after 54.8. It continues its run of large swings: the -4.5pts in Nov comes after +6.5pts in Oct and -5.7pts in Sep. For context, the latest number is down from 55.2 averaged in 1H24 and 52.1 in 2H24 to date, but is still above the 49.0 averaged in 2019 as well as 46.6 recently in 2023.
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