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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

     
Data for: April 2018
Source: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey
Units are either median percent change or median probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              1-Yr Pct
        Pct Change         Pct Change         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg
         1-yr infl          3-yr infl                  Gas        Food
Oct17         2.61               2.81                 3.83        4.30
Nov17         2.61               2.78                 4.31        4.35
Dec17         2.82               2.89                 4.11        4.60
Jan18         2.71               2.79                 4.34        4.34
Feb18         2.83               2.88                 4.29        4.31
Mar18         2.75               2.91                 4.62        4.49
Apr18         2.98               2.97                 4.76        4.65
          1-Yr Pct                                            1-Yr Pct
               Chg       1-Yr Pct Chg         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg
           Medical            College                 Rent        Gold
Oct17         9.70               6.58                 5.48        2.90
Nov17         9.70               7.96                 5.56        2.47
Dec17         9.51               7.80                 5.47        2.83
Jan18         9.24               7.77                 5.45        2.93
Feb18         9.12               5.98                 5.34        2.58
Mar18         8.82               5.91                 5.19        2.95
Apr18         8.90               6.30                 5.51        2.99
                                                                  1-yr      1-yr
                                            1-yr Household   Household    Change
        Pct Growth                                            Spending
                In     Pct  Growth In        Income Growth      Growth  In Taxes
                                                                             Pct
       Home Prices           Earnings           Pct Change  Pct Change    Change
Oct17         3.02               2.12                 2.58        2.84      2.32
Nov17         3.29               2.57                 2.98        3.58      2.26
Dec17         3.17               2.67                 2.77        2.89      2.18
Jan18         3.46               2.73                 2.76        2.85      1.64
Feb18         3.33               2.67                 2.97        2.95      1.50
Mar18         3.48               2.61                 2.87        3.08      1.67
Apr18         3.69               2.67                 2.85        3.27      1.93
       Probability
                Of     Probability Of
            Higher
             Unemp       Higher Stock            1-yr Govt
        Rates 1-yr        Prices 1-yr          Debt Growth
          From Now           From Now           Pct Change
Oct17        36.00              42.92                 5.92
Nov17        33.66              42.55                 7.81
Dec17        33.45              44.30                 7.18
Jan18        32.38              44.90                 5.89
Feb18        32.25              43.02                 7.53
Mar18        34.45              42.02                 6.95
Apr18        34.94              41.51                 7.61
                       Probability Of
                        The Following
                            Occurring
                                                             Change In
               Job          Voluntary          Job Finding        Home
                                                               Next 12
        Separation         Separation          In 3 Months         Mos
Oct17        15.34              23.09                57.67       18.10
Nov17        13.49              21.48                60.13       16.60
Dec17        13.78              21.66                60.02       17.60
Jan18        14.90              22.07                59.74       15.91
Feb18        12.75              21.35                59.70       18.27
Mar18        13.91              19.34                57.57       17.34
Apr18        13.73              20.50                57.08       18.08
       Probability
                Of                          Probability Of
         Unable To
              Make                          Higher Savings
           Minimum
           Payment                     Acct Interest Rates
        Next 3 Mos                           1-yr From Now
Oct17        12.77                                   32.93
Nov17        12.50                                   34.00
Dec17        12.45                                   34.51
Jan18        12.33                                   34.87
Feb18        11.56                                   36.48
Mar18        10.72                                   37.07
Apr18        11.04                                   36.80
                                       Credit Availability
                                        Compared With Year
                                                       Ago
              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much
            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier
Oct17         6.15              22.26                49.27       19.67      2.66
Nov17         5.01              23.32                47.86       21.26      2.55
Dec17         6.55              20.43                49.85       20.29      2.88
Jan18         3.75              20.56                48.37       24.21      3.11
Feb18         4.15              20.54                49.93       22.02      3.37
Mar18         4.24              21.17                52.91       18.51      3.16
Apr18         4.34              22.88                50.73       19.04      3.01
                                       Credit Availability
                                        Seen Year From Now
              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much
            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier
Oct17         4.87              23.33                50.90       18.19      2.71
Nov17         4.88              23.79                50.05       18.79      2.49
Dec17         6.25              22.99                49.34       18.62      2.80
Jan18         4.05              21.44                49.85       21.60      3.06
Feb18         4.14              23.44                49.77       19.52      3.14
Mar18         3.61              23.53                53.48       15.99      3.39
Apr18         4.27              24.87                49.80       18.65      2.40
                                        Household Finances
                                        Compared With Year
                                                       Ago
              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much
                                                                          Better
         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off
Oct17         2.91              15.77                46.75       30.38      4.19
Nov17         2.63              16.52                47.45       29.18      4.22
Dec17         2.47              15.01                45.52       30.32      6.68
Jan18         1.43              16.82                43.08       32.87      5.81
Feb18         1.97              14.20                43.60       34.84      5.38
Mar18         2.19              13.31                44.12       34.33      6.05
Apr18         2.59              14.48                44.72       32.47      5.74
                                        Household Finances
                                        Seen Year From Now
              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much
                                                                          Better
         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off
Oct17         1.00              10.44                47.63       34.82      6.10
Nov17         0.87              11.71                45.27       36.23      5.92
Dec17         1.17              10.27                45.39       34.97      8.19
Jan18         0.69              11.82                41.84       37.44      8.21
Feb18         0.48               9.67                44.29       38.18      7.38
Mar18         0.91              10.92                44.22       36.39      7.56
Apr18         0.82              10.98                44.13       37.36      6.70
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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