US Data: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Survey>

Data For:          February 2019

Source: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey

Units are either median percent change or median probability

        Pct Change    Pct Change  1-Yr Pct Chg  1-Yr Pct Chg

         1-yr infl     3-yr infl           Gas          Food

Oct18          3.00          3.00          4.54          4.54

Nov18          2.97          2.88          4.18          4.32

Dec18          3.00          2.98          3.66          4.24

Jan19          2.97          2.97          4.23          4.52

Feb19          2.79          2.77          4.29          4.40

      1-Yr Pct Chg  1-Yr Pct Chg  1-Yr Pct Chg  1-Yr Pct Chg

           Medical       College          Rent          Gold

Oct18          7.76          5.92          5.44          2.51

Nov18          9.14          6.25          5.38          2.21

Dec18          9.02          5.94          5.27          2.10

Jan19          8.31          5.94          5.40          2.73

Feb19          7.48          5.87          5.31          2.71

                                 1-yr Household1-yr Household  1-yr Change

     Pct Growth In Pct  Growth InIncome Growth Spending Growt     In Taxes

       Home Prices      Earnings    Pct Change    Pct Change    Pct Change

Oct18          3.26          2.45          2.91          3.69          2.39

Nov18          3.05          2.02          2.95          3.49          2.68

Dec18          3.00          2.48          2.91          3.50          2.62

Jan19          3.00          2.43          2.81          3.01          2.73

Feb19          3.00          2.45          2.47          3.10          2.52

     Probability Of Probability Of

      Higher Unemp   Higher Stock     1-yr Govt

        Rates 1-yr    Prices 1-yr   Debt Growth

          From Now       From Now    Pct Change

Oct18         35.14          41.59          6.37

Nov18         35.76          39.82          7.77

Dec18         38.83          39.62          6.15

Jan19         40.64          40.37          9.05

Feb19         37.19          42.03          7.67

                   Probability Of The Following Occurring

               Job     Voluntary   Job Finding Change In Home

        Separation    Separation   In 3 Months   Next 12 Mos

Oct18         13.52         20.75         58.69         18.16

Nov18         14.66         22.77         58.59         18.82

Dec18         13.83         21.13         58.79         18.46

Jan19         14.50         21.43         59.23         18.58

Feb19         14.55         21.21         59.24         18.98

     Probability Of              Probability Of

     Unable To Make              Higher Savings

     Minimum Payment             Acct Interest Rates

        Next 3 Mos               1-yr From Now

Oct18         12.73                       38.40

Nov18         12.04                       37.27

Dec18         12.01                       37.89

Jan19         12.01                       37.01

Feb19         10.90                       34.78

                         Credit Availability Compared With Year Ago

              Much      Somewhat       Equally      Somewhat          Much

            Harder        Harder     Easy/Hard        Easier        Easier

Oct18          4.60         23.68         45.18         23.34          3.21

Nov18          4.73         24.28         44.95         22.82          3.22

Dec18          6.32         23.14         42.52         24.12          3.90

Jan19          5.46         26.01         44.06         21.27          3.31

Feb19          4.33         25.50         47.60         19.56          3.02

                         Credit Availability Seen Year From Now

              Much      Somewhat       Equally      Somewhat          Much

            Harder        Harder     Easy/Hard        Easier        Easier

Oct18          5.09         25.56         46.78         20.21          2.37

Nov18          5.97         25.37         46.12         19.70          2.84

Dec18          6.34         28.53         43.36         18.59          3.18

Jan19          6.13         29.92         45.84         14.73          3.38

Feb19          4.15         28.39         48.47         16.87          2.13

                        Household Finances Compared With Year Ago

              Much      Somewhat         About      Somewhat          Much

         Worse Off     Worse Off      The Same    Better Off    Better Off

Oct18          1.73         15.54         45.58         30.49          6.66

Nov18          1.69         16.53         46.14         29.42          6.23

Dec18          3.33         17.07         43.75         30.45          5.39

Jan19          1.76         18.12         46.64         28.09          5.40

Feb19          1.70         16.08         46.08         30.47          5.66

                         Household Finances Seen Year From Now

              Much      Somewhat         About      Somewhat          Much

         Worse Off     Worse Off      The Same    Better Off    Better Off

Oct18          1.41          9.61         47.44         33.87          7.67

Nov18          1.37         11.17         44.94         35.96          6.57

Dec18          1.07         11.90         46.38         33.39          7.27

Jan19          0.63         14.27         46.51         32.16          6.43

Feb19          1.10         12.07         44.73         33.94          8.16

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