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BUNDS

Spread dominates the overnight session

GOLD TECHS

Approaching The Base Of The Bull Channel

WTI TECHS

(F2) Bounces Off Yesterday’s Low

MARKET INSIGHT

What to watch

US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 13/17:06 EST Aug 13
     
                             Aug-19   Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19   Mar-19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        209/212  208/219  219/215  228/220  197/207  224/220
wk 2                                 216/219  222/218  212/225  193/201  216/220
wk 3                                 207/213  217/219  212/221  230/206  212/217
wk 4                                 217/212  229/222  218/217  230/212  204/214
wk 5                                          222/223
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +164k    +193k     +62k    +216k    +153k
Private Payrolls                       +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k    +153k
Mfg Payroll                             +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k      -3k
Unemployment                            3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%     3.8%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.4     34.4     34.4     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6     40.7
Aggr Hours Index                       -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.5%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%
excl food & energy                     -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%
excl food, energy, trade               -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%     Flat
CPI                                    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%
excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%
Import Prices                                   -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.6%
non-petro import prices                         -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%     Flat
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0     54.3
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%    +1.4%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%
Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8  +$160.3
Consumer Credit (bn)                                    +$17.1   +$17.5   +$11.0
CB Consumer Confidence                 135.7    124.3    131.3    129.2    124.2
Consumer Sentiment                      98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2     98.5
Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn)                                              2.3      2.3      2.3      2.6
Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,
Saar (mn)                                         5.3      5.3      4.8      5.0
Total Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn)                                              7.6      7.6      7.1      7.6
Retail Sales                                    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +1.8%
excl motor vehicles                             +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.6%    +1.4%
Personal Income                                 +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                               +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.0%
ISM Mfg Index                           51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8     55.3
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5     56.1
MNI Chicago Report                      44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6     58.7
Phila Fed Mfg Index                     21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5     13.7
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0     21.7
Empire State Index                       4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1      3.7
KC Fed Mfg Index                          -1        0        4        5       10
Richmond Fed Mfg Index                   -12        2        7        9       10
Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0      6.9
Markit Mfg Index                        50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4     52.4
Markit Services Index                   53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0     55.3
Ind Production                                   Flat    +0.4%    -0.5%    +0.1%
Capacity Util                                   77.9%    78.1%    77.9%    78.4%
Factory Orders                                  +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%    +1.3%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Durables                                        +1.9%    -2.3%    -2.8%    +1.7%
Durables ex transport                           +1.0%    +0.4%    -0.2%    -0.5%
Nondurables                                     -0.5%    -0.3%    +0.4%    +0.9%
Mfg Shipments                                   +0.4%    +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%
Business Inventories                                     +0.3%    +0.5%     Flat
Factory                                         +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%
Retail                                          -0.1%    +0.4%    +0.6%    -0.3%
Wholesale                                        Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%     Flat
Housing Starts (mn)                             1.253    1.265    1.270    1.199
Building Permits (mn)                           1.232    1.299    1.290    1.288
NAHB Index                                         64       66       63       62
New Home Sales (k)                                646      604      658      705
Existing Homes (mn)                              5.27     5.36     5.21     5.21
Pending Home Sales Index                        108.3    105.4    104.3    105.9
Construct Spending                               -1.3    -0.5%    +0.9%    +0.1%
Private Residential                              -0.5     Flat    +0.9%    -0.8%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2   -$51.9
Exports (bn)                                   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4   $211.4
Imports (bn)                                   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6   $263.3
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7   -$72.7
Leading Index                                   -0.3%     Flat    +0.1%    +0.3%
                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19
GDP (chain-wt)                                  +2.1%                      +3.1%
Final Sales                                     +3.0%                      +2.6%
Chain prices                                    +2.4%                      +1.1%
Current-dollar                                  +4.6%                      +3.9%
                                                                           Q1-19
Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +3.4%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   -1.6%
                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19
ECI (q/q)                                       +0.6%                      +0.7%
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]