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USDCAD TECHS

Watching The 50-Day EMA

AUDUSD TECHS

Bearish Focus

MONTH-END EXTENSIONS

Updated Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US

US TSYS

Late Session Selling

US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Oct 30/17:06 EST Oct 30
     
             Oct-1  Sep-1  Aug-1
                 9      9      9  Jul-19  Jun-19  May-19  Apr-19  Mar-19  Feb-19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI
Claims/4wk
avg
             214/2  204/2  211/2  208/21  219/21  228/22  197/20  224/22  230/22
wk 1            15     13     13       9       5       0       7       0       5
                    208/2  221/2  216/21  222/21  212/22  193/20  216/22  231/22
wk 2                   06     14       9       8       5       1       0       9
                    219/2  211/2  207/21  217/21  212/22  230/20  212/21  213/22
wk 3                   13     15       3       9       1       6       7       9
                    220/2  216/2  217/21  229/22  218/21  230/21  204/21  224/22
wk 4                   10     15       2       2       7       2       4       5
                    210/2  219/2  211/21  222/22                          218/22
wk 5                   14     17       3       3                               1
Nonfarm
Payrolls            +136k  +130k   +164k   +193k    +62k   +216k   +153k    +56k
Private
Payrolls            +114k   +96k   +148k   +179k    +81k   +195k   +153k    +46k
Mfg Payroll           -2k    +3k    +16k    +12k     +2k     +3k     -3k     +8k
Unemploymen
t                    3.5%   3.7%    3.7%    3.7%    3.6%    3.6%    3.8%    3.8%
Avg Wkly
Hours                34.4   34.4    34.3    34.4    34.4    34.4    34.5    34.4
Avg Hours -
Mfg                  40.5   40.5    40.4    40.7    40.6    40.6    40.7    40.7
Aggr Hours
Index                0.0%  +0.4%   -0.2%   +0.2%   +0.1%   -0.2%   +0.5%   -0.3%
Aggr Hrs
Index - Mfg          0.0%  +0.5%   -0.6%   +0.3%   +0.1%   -0.2%   -0.1%   -0.1%
Avg Hourly
Earnings            +0.4%  +0.4%   +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.4%
Final
Demand PPI          -0.3%  +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.6%   +0.1%
excl food &
energy              -0.3%  +0.3%   -0.1%   +0.3%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.1%
excl food,
energy,
trade                 0.0  +0.4%   -0.1%    Flat   +0.4%   +0.4%    Flat   +0.1%
CPI                 +0.1%  +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.4%   +0.2%
excl food &
energy              +0.2%  +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.1%
Import
Prices              +0.2%  -0.5%   +0.2%   -0.9%    Flat   +0.2%   +0.6%   +1.0%
non-petro
import
prices                       0.0    Flat   -0.4%   -0.3%   -0.5%    Flat   +0.2%
ISM Mfg
Prices Pd
Index                49.7   46.0    45.1    47.9    53.2    50.0    54.3    49.4
PCE Price
Index M/M                   0.0%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.2%   +0.1%
PCE Price
Index Y/Y                   1.4%   +1.4%   +1.4%   +1.4%   +1.5%   +1.4%   +1.3%
Core PCE
Price Index
M/M                         0.1%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.1%    Flat
Core PCE
Price Index
Y/Y                         1.8%   +1.6%   +1.6%   +1.5%   +1.5%   +1.5%   +1.6%
Treasury                          -$200.  -$119.          -$207.  +$160.  -$146.
Budget (bn)                            3       7   -$8.5       8       3       9
Consumer                   +$17.
Credit (bn)                    9  +$23.3  +$13.8  +$17.1  +$17.5  +$11.0  +$15.5
CB Consumer
Confidence          125.1  135.1   135.8   124.3   131.3   129.2   124.2   131.4
Consumer
Sentiment                   89.8    98.4    98.2   100.0    97.2    98.5    93.8
Retail
Sales               -0.3%   +0.4   +0.8%   +0.4%   +0.5%   +0.4%   +1.8%   -0.5%
excl motor
vehicles                     0.0   +1.0%   +0.3%   +0.5%   +0.6%   +1.4%   -0.6%
Personal
Income                     +0.4%   +0.1%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.6%
Personal
Spending                   +0.1%   +0.6%   +0.3%   +0.5%   +0.6%   +1.0%   -0.1%
ISM Mfg
Index                47.8   49.1    51.2    51.7    52.1    52.8    55.3    54.2
ISM Nonmfg
NMI                         56.4    53.7    55.1    56.9    55.5    56.1    59.7
MNI Chicago
Report               47.1   50.4    44.4    49.7    54.2    52.6    58.7    64.7
Phila Fed
Mfg Index            12.0   16.8    21.8     0.3    16.6     8.5    13.7    -4.1
Phila Fed
Nonmfg
Index         12.6    9.5    7.5    21.4     8.2    17.3    21.0    21.7    10.0
Empire
State Index    4.0    2.0    4.8     4.3    -8.6    17.8    10.1     3.7     8.8
KC Fed Mfg
Index           -3     -2     -6      -1       0       4       5      10       1
Richmond
Fed Mfg
Index                  -9      1     -12       2       7       9      10      14
Dallas Fed
Mfg Index             1.5    2.7    -6.3   -12.1    -5.3     2.0     6.9    11.6
Markit Mfg
Index                51.5   50.3    50.4    50.6    50.5    52.4    52.4    53.0
Markit
Services
Index                50.9   50.7    53.0    51.5    50.9    53.0    55.3    56.0
Ind
Production          -0.4%  +0.8%   -0.1%   +0.1%   +0.2%   -0.6%   +0.1%   -0.5%
Capacity
Util                77.5%  77.9%   77.5%   77.8%   77.8%   77.7%   78.4%   78.5%
Factory
Orders                     -0.1%    +1.4   +0.6%   -1.3%   -1.2%   +1.3%   -1.0%
Factory
Orders ex
transport                           +0.3   +0.1%   +0.0%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.3%
Durables            -1.1%  +0.2%   +2.0%   +1.8%   -2.3%   -2.8%   +1.7%   -2.6%
Durables ex
transport           -0.3%  +0.5%   -0.4%   +0.8%   +0.4%   -0.2%   -0.5%   -0.3%
Nondurables                        +0.8%   -0.7%   -0.3%   +0.4%   +0.9%   +0.7%
Mfg
Shipments                           -0.2    +0.1   +0.1%   -0.6%   +0.2%   +0.3%
Business
Inventories           0.0   +0.4    +0.4    Flat   +0.3%   +0.5%    Flat   +0.3%
Factory                             +0.2   +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.4%   +0.3%
Retail               -0.1    0.8           -0.3%   +0.3%   +0.6%   -0.3%   +0.3%
Wholesale                   +0.2    +0.2    Flat   +0.4%   +0.8%    Flat   +0.4%
Housing
Starts (mn)         1.256  1.386   1.191   1.241   1.264   1.270   1.199   1.149
Building
Permits
(mn)                1.387  1.425   1.336   1.232   1.299   1.290   1.288   1.287
NAHB Index             68     66      65      64      66      63      62      62
New Home
Sales (k)             701    706     635     646     604     658     705     669
Existing
Homes (mn)           5.38   5.49    5.42    5.29    5.36    5.21    5.21    5.48
Pending
Home Sales
Index               108.7  107.1   105.6   108.3   105.4   104.3   105.9   101.9
Construct
Spending                     0.1     0.1    -0.7   -0.5%   +0.9%   +0.1%   +1.0%
Private
Residential                  0.9     0.6    -0.5    Flat   +0.9%   -0.8%   -0.7%
Trade
Balance                    -$54.
(bn)                           9  -$54.0  -$55.2  -$55.3  -$51.2  -$51.9  -$50.0
Exports                    $207.
(bn)                           9  $207.4  $206.3  $210.7  $206.4  $211.4  $209.6
Imports                    $262.
(bn)                           8  $261.4  $261.5  $266.0  $257.6  $263.3  $259.7
Goods Only,                -$74.
BOP (bn)                       4  -$72.5  -$75.1  -$75.9  -$71.7  -$72.7  -$70.8
Leading
Index                      +0.0%   +0.5%   -0.1%   -0.1%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.1%
                                           Q2-19                   Q1-19
GDP
(chain-wt)                                 +2.0%                   +3.1%
Final Sales                                +3.0%                   +2.6%
Chain
prices                                     +2.4%                   +1.1%
Current-dol
lar                                        +4.6%                   +3.9%
                                           Q2-19                   Q1-19
Nonfarm
Productivit
y                                          +2.3%                   +3.5%
Nonfarm
Unit Labor
Costs                                      +2.6%                   +5.5%
                                           Q2-19                   Q1-19
ECI (q/q)                                  +0.6%                   +0.7%
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]