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US DATA: Soft Richmond Fed May Underplay Nationwide Manufacturing Steadiness

US DATA
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The Riichmond Fed Manufacturing Survey composite manufacturing index rose to -14 in October, still indicating "slow" activity (per the survey) albeit up from -21 in September and a little stronger than the -14 expected, with shipments, new orders and employment all improving on the month.

  • The Richmond Fed survey has portrayed a relatively more negative picture of US manufacturing activity lately than its regional Fed counterparts and the ISM Manufacturing survey as a whole. We have previously noted the potential drag on the index from Boeing being headquartered in Virginia, with a large order cancellation in June and workers' strike starting September 13. And it's also key to note that the region covered in the survey includes hurricane-hit areas, particularly North Carolina, which may also be playing a role in restraining improvement in October's still-negative reading.
  • Regardless, the three regional Fed surveys released for the month so far (Empire, Philly, Richmond) are consistent with an October ISM Manufacturing PMI little changed from September's 47.2 - basically, in steady, slightly contractionary territory. Dallas and Kansas City are still awaited.
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The Riichmond Fed Manufacturing Survey composite manufacturing index rose to -14 in October, still indicating "slow" activity (per the survey) albeit up from -21 in September and a little stronger than the -14 expected, with shipments, new orders and employment all improving on the month.

  • The Richmond Fed survey has portrayed a relatively more negative picture of US manufacturing activity lately than its regional Fed counterparts and the ISM Manufacturing survey as a whole. We have previously noted the potential drag on the index from Boeing being headquartered in Virginia, with a large order cancellation in June and workers' strike starting September 13. And it's also key to note that the region covered in the survey includes hurricane-hit areas, particularly North Carolina, which may also be playing a role in restraining improvement in October's still-negative reading.
  • Regardless, the three regional Fed surveys released for the month so far (Empire, Philly, Richmond) are consistent with an October ISM Manufacturing PMI little changed from September's 47.2 - basically, in steady, slightly contractionary territory. Dallas and Kansas City are still awaited.