US: Democrats See Pathway To Retaining Senate Through Texas

A new survey of the Texas Senate race, conducted by Democrat candidate Rep Colin Allred (D-TX), shows a tied race with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). A recent NYT/Siena poll shows Cruz ahead, 50-46. Another poll from Emerson College last week, had Cruz ahead by one point.

• An Allred campaign memo reads: “The momentum in the Texas Senate race is with Colin Allred, but to finish the job he will need the resources to appeal to a broad base of supporters across Texas.”
• If Senator Jon Tester (D-MO) loses in Montana, as polls indicate, then control of the Senate may come down to Texas, a wildcard race in Nebraska, and control of the presidency.
• Spencer Kimball at Emerson College Polling said on the Montana race: "Tester’s support among Montana voters faces a test as Trump appears poised to exceed his 2020 margin of 16.4 percentage points in the state.”
• On that Nebraska race: Independent Dan Osborn is within two points of GOP Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) among likely Nebraska voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, per NYT/Siena.
• The polling suggests that there are feasible pathways to Democrats retaining the Senate, but it likely hinges on a victory by Vice President Harris and a near-perfect performance by Democrat candidates in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Mexico, and Michigan. A tall order reflected in betting markets showing a nearly 85% implied probability that Republicans flip the chamber. 

Figure 1: Montana Senate Race