November 05, 2024 20:11 GMT
US ELECTIONS: DDHQ Leans Slightly To Trump In Final Forecast
US ELECTIONS
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Decision Desk HQ has published its final election forecast, showing former President Donald Trump as a slight favourite - unchanged from last week and slightly bucking a tilt to Vice President Kamala Harris from other forecast models.
- DDHQ notes: "Entering Election Day, Donald Trump is a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up. Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 219 and Harris at 226, and 93 votes dispersed across seven “tossup” states. [Trump] holds a narrow lead in six of the seven “tossup” states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan."
DDHQ's forecast is in line with the other major forecast models showing a toss-up race.
- Silver Bulletin: Harris 50.0% - 49.6% Trump
- 538: Harris 50% - 49% Trump
- The Economist: Harris 56% - 43% Trump
- CNalysis shows the most bullish for Democrats: Harris 69.8% - 29.5% Trump - a forecast that appears to extropolate a major break for Harris among women from the final Iowa Pollfrom Ann Selzer.
- Betting markets continue to show a more favourable outlook for Trump, with Polymarket, Kalshi, and Smarkets pushing Trump back above 60% implied probability of winning.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast Model
Source: DDHQ, The Hill
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