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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US ELECTIONS
Decision Desk HQ has published its final election forecast, showing former President Donald Trump as a slight favourite - unchanged from last week and slightly bucking a tilt to Vice President Kamala Harris from other forecast models.
- DDHQ notes: "Entering Election Day, Donald Trump is a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up. Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 219 and Harris at 226, and 93 votes dispersed across seven “tossup” states. [Trump] holds a narrow lead in six of the seven “tossup” states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan."
DDHQ's forecast is in line with the other major forecast models showing a toss-up race.
- Silver Bulletin: Harris 50.0% - 49.6% Trump
- 538: Harris 50% - 49% Trump
- The Economist: Harris 56% - 43% Trump
- CNalysis shows the most bullish for Democrats: Harris 69.8% - 29.5% Trump - a forecast that appears to extropolate a major break for Harris among women from the final Iowa Pollfrom Ann Selzer.
- Betting markets continue to show a more favourable outlook for Trump, with Polymarket, Kalshi, and Smarkets pushing Trump back above 60% implied probability of winning.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast Model
Source: DDHQ, The Hill
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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