US ELECTIONS: Nate Silver Model Shows Outlier Forecast Favouring Harris

Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin election forecast model shows an outlier projection of a narrow Harris edge.

• The model projects a divided probability outlook between the six key states, with Trump taking an edge in the Sun Belt trio of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona and Harris with an edge in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania, the most critical state of the cycle, is a toss-up.
• Silver's model now falls well outside the consensus projection of the race, with prediction markets pushing Trump to a roughly 90% implied probability of winning.
• The NYT needle shows Trump with an 80% chance of winning, falling on the outer edge of the 'lean Republican' bracket.
• Nate Cohen at the Times notes Trump's overperformance hints at a popular vote victory: "The race for the national popular vote is a true tossup. Trump has run well all over the country. If that trend continues in California and New York, where the vote count is still early, there’s a distinct chance he could win it."
• Matt Glassman writes: "An earthquake in the making is Trump winning the popular vote. It's almost an article of gospel among liberals that Trump's advantage has been the EC, not national popularity. If he wins the popular vote, that theory of policy illegitimacy dissolves, and rearranges a lot of the public politics of a second Trump term."

Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast