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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US ELECTIONS
Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin election forecast model shows an outlier projection of a narrow Harris edge.
- The model projects a divided probability outlook between the six key states, with Trump taking an edge in the Sun Belt trio of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona and Harris with an edge in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania, the most critical state of the cycle, is a toss-up.
- Silver's model now falls well outside the consensus projection of the race, with prediction markets pushing Trump to a roughly 90% implied probability of winning.
- The NYT needle shows Trump with an 80% chance of winning, falling on the outer edge of the 'lean Republican' bracket.
- Nate Cohen at the Times notes Trump's overperformance hints at a popular vote victory: "The race for the national popular vote is a true tossup. Trump has run well all over the country. If that trend continues in California and New York, where the vote count is still early, there’s a distinct chance he could win it."
- Matt Glassman writes: "An earthquake in the making is Trump winning the popular vote. It's almost an article of gospel among liberals that Trump's advantage has been the EC, not national popularity. If he wins the popular vote, that theory of policy illegitimacy dissolves, and rearranges a lot of the public politics of a second Trump term."
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast
Source: Silver Bulletin
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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