US ELECTIONS: Turnout Data Turns Betting Markets Bullish On Harris In Nevada

Betting markets see turnout data from Nevada as positive for Harris, after a strong reported turnout from Democrats and independents. In the last few hours, the Nevada market on Kalshi turned positive for Harris, after showing Trump as high as 65% implied probability of winning in late October. 

• According to early voting data from John Ralston at the Nevada Indepedent, Trump appears to have turned out considerably more early votes than in previous cycles, necessitating a surge of Election Day votes for Harris. 
• John Samuel at the University of Arkansas providesdata on Xshowing that registered Democrats have the edge on turnout today in the first few hours, with a large bloc of independent voters adding to uncertainty. Of course, turnout data only shows party affiliation so should not be considered a firm indication of votes cast for either candidate.
• Ralston writes on X: "Look at those indies! They control this election, folks."
• With only 6 Electoral College votes, Nevada is often considered the least important of the seven key swing states. However, a strong Democrat turnout today might indicate that Harrris may perform strongly with independents and Latino voters who appeared to have been trending towards Trump. 

Figure 1: Presidential Election Winner, Nevada, %Implied Probability