US: Nate Silver Says His 'Gut' Favours Trump Despite Polling Dead Heat

Elections Analyst Nate Silver wrote in a NYT op-ed that: “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” but conceded that his “gut says Donald Trump” will win. 

• Silver added: “…you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
• Silver's comments come as the public discourse around the election appears to showing momentum towards a Trump victory.
• In response to the sentiment shift, Harris has made a campaign pivot to health care, a policy area where she has a strong advantage over Trump with Democrats and independents.  
• On Friday, Harris will travel to Texas to deliver a speech warning of Republican efforts to restrict women’s rights related to abortion and healthcare. Texas isn’t widely considered a competitive state in the presidential election, but Democrats have been eying Senator Ted Cruz’ (R-TX) seat as a potential second route to retaining the Senate.  

Figure 1: Election Forecast Model