US Netbacks Favour Europe over Asia as Gas Prices Fall

The US netback to Europe for April is just above the netback to Asia with both TTF and JKM gas prices falling due to mild weather and healthy gas storage levels.

• The estimated US netback to Europe is 12.98$/mmbtu while the US netback to Asia is down to 12.45$/mmbtu. In the remaining summer months, the US netbacks still encourage flows to Europe over Asia. The front month JKM-TTF spread for March yesterday fell back near to flat.
• Total EU LNG sendout is up to 448mcm/d on 14 Feb having dipped down to 420mcm/d last weekend. The steady supplies, warmer weather and current high wind generation in NW Europe continue to weigh on prices with TTF trading below 50€/MWh for the first time since August 2021.
• LNG imports to NW Europe have decrease since a record high in December with gradually easing tight market pressures in Europe. So far in Feb 40 cargoes have arrived with another 21 cargoes expected before the end of the month compared to 79 in January.
  • TTF MAR 23 down -4.4% at 49.73€/MWh
  • NBP MAR 23 down -4.7% at 123.4p/th
  • JKM Mar 23 down -8.9% at 16.3$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Mar 23 down -0.9$/mmbtu at 0.82$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas MAR 23 down -1.7% at 2.35$/mmbtu