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Free AccessUS NFIB Survey: September Optimism Index -2.3 to 103 - Text
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are excerpts from the National Federation
of Independent Business' monthly Small Business Optimism index published
Tuesday:
The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism tumbled in September from 105.3
to 103 led by a steep drop in sales expectations, not just in hurricane-affected
states, but across the country.
"The temptation is to blame the decline on the hurricanes in Texas and
Florida, but that is not consistent with our data," said Juanita Duggan, NFIB
President and CEO. "Small business owners across the country were measurably
less enthusiastic last month."
The net percent of small business owners who expect improved sales in the
next three months plunged 12 points to a net 15 percent. Owners who think that
it's a good time to expand dropped 10 points. Also within the Index, expected
better business conditions (-6) and capital expenditure plans (-5) retreated
in September.
"The drop-off was consistent around the country regardless of region, and
it's likely that members in Florida and Texas were underrepresented in this
survey because of the obvious disruptions," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill
Dunkelberg. "The adjusted average employment change per firm dipped to -0.17,
which is a significant drop in hiring activity.
"The Index remains very high by historical standards," he continued. "Small
business owners still expect policy changes from Washington on health care and
taxes, and while they don't know what those changes will look like, they expect
them to be an improvement. But the frothy expectations they've had in the
previous few months clearly slipped in September."
Six of the 10 Index components dropped in September. Three improved, and
one remained unchanged. The bright spot last month was inventory plans, which
gained five points as more business owners anticipate a strong 4th quarter.
Optimism Components: Seas Adj Level % Change
PLAN TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT 19 1
PLAN TO INCREASE CAP. OUTLAYS 27 -5
PLAN TO INCREASE INVENTORIES 7 5
EXPECT ECONOMY TO IMPROVE 30 -1
EXPECT REAL SALES HIGHER 15 -12
CURRENT INVENTORY -3 2
CURRENT JOB OPENINGS 30 -1
EXPECT CREDIT CONDITIONS -4 -1
NOW A GOOD TIME TO EXPAND 17 -10
EARNINGS TRENDS -11 0
TOTAL CHANGE -- -27
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.