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SONIA Dove Strikes Again

US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Sep-18   Aug-18   Jul-18   Jun-18   May-18   Apr-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        204/208  214/214  215/223  222/226  211/216  233/230
wk 2                                 212/216  208/221  221/225  223/214  233/232
wk 3                                 210/214  217/218  218/221  234/220  209/229
wk 4                                 213/212  219/214  228/222  223/223  211/222
wk 5                                 205/210           232/225
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +201k    +147k    +208k    +244k    +175k
Private Payrolls                       +204k    +153k    +208k    +239k    +174k
Mfg Payroll                              -3k     +18k     +21k     +19k     +28k
Unemployment                            3.9%     3.9%     4.0%     3.8%     3.9%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.5     34.6     34.5     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg                         41.0     41.0     41.0     40.8     41.0
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.2%    -0.2%    +0.5%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                    Flat    +0.1%    +0.4%    -0.1%    +0.5%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.2%
Final Demand PPI                       -0.1%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.1%
excl food & energy                     -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.2%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%
CPI                                    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Import Prices                                            -0.4%    +0.6%    +0.6%
non-petro import prices                                  -0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                          73.2     76.8     79.5     79.3
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +2.3%    +2.2%    +2.2%    +2.0%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +2.0%    +1.9%    +2.0%    +1.9%
Treasury Budget (bn)                 -$214.1   -$76.9   -$74.9  -$146.8  +$214.3
Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$16.6    +$8.7   +$21.9    +$8.6
CB Consumer Confidence                 133.4    127.9    126.4    128.8    125.6
Consumer Sentiment            100.8     96.2     97.6     98.2     98.0     98.8
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn)                                              3.0      3.1      3.0      3.1
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn)                                              6.9      7.2      6.9      6.9
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                          9.9     10.3      9.9     10.0
Retail Sales                           +0.1%    +0.7%    +0.2%    +1.2%    +0.4%
excl motor vehicles                    +0.3%    +0.9%    +0.3%    +1.4%    +0.4%
Personal Income                                 +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.3%
Personal Spending                               +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.5%
ISM Mfg Index                           61.3     58.1     60.2     58.7     57.3
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          58.5     55.7     59.1     58.6     56.8
MNI Chicago Report                      63.6     65.5     64.1     62.7     57.6
Phila Fed Mfg Index                     11.9     25.7     19.9     34.4     23.2
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  41.7     44.3     39.1     45.3     27.6
Empire State Index                      25.6     22.6     25.0     20.1     15.8
KC Fed Mfg Index                          14       23       28       29       26
Richmond Fed Mfg Index                    24       20       21       16       -3
Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    30.9     32.3     36.5     26.8     21.8
Markit Mfg Index                        54.5     55.3     55.4     56.4     56.5
Markit Services Index                   55.2     56.0     56.5     56.8     54.6
Ind Production                         +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.6%    -0.8%    +1.1%
Capacity Util                          78.1%    77.9%    77.8%    77.4%    78.2%
Factory Orders                                  -0.8%    +0.6%    +0.4%    -0.4%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.8%    +0.9%
Durables                                        -1.7%    +0.9%    -0.3%    -1.0%
Durables ex transport                           +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +1.9%
Nondurables                                     +0.2%    +0.4%    +1.1%    +0.3%
Mfg Shipments                                    Flat    +1.0%    +0.6%    +0.1%
Business Inventories                            +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%
Factory                                         +0.8%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%
Retail                                          +0.5%    -0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%
Wholesale                                       +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%
Housing Starts (mn)                             1.168    1.158    1.329    1.276
Building Permits (mn)                           1.303    1.292    1.301    1.364
NAHB Index                                         68       68       70       68
New Home Sales (k)                                627      638      654      633
Existing Homes (mn)                              5.34     5.38     5.41     5.45
Pending Home Sales Index                        106.2    106.9    105.9    106.4
Construct Spending                              +0.1%    -0.8%    +0.7%    +1.7%
Private Residential                             +0.6%    -0.9%    -0.3%     3.1%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$50.1   -$45.7   -$42.6   -$45.5
Exports (bn)                                  +$211.1  +$213.2  +$214.7  +$210.5
Imports (bn)                                  +$261.2  +$258.9  +$257.2  +$256.0
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$73.1   -$68.9   -$65.8   -$68.4
Leading Index                                   +0.6%    +0.5%    +0.1%    +0.4%
                                                                  Q2-18    Q1-18
GDP (chain-wt)                                                    +4.2%    +2.2%
Final Sales                                                       +5.3%    +1.9%
Chain prices                                                      +3.0%    +2.0%
Current-dollar                                                    +7.6%    +4.3%
                                                                  Q2-18    Q1-18
Nonfarm Productivity                                              +2.9%    +0.3%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                          -1.0%    +3.4%
                                                                  Q2-18    Q1-18
ECI (q/q)                                                         +0.6%    +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
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